FXUS62 KCHS 062310 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 610 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The aviation section has been updated for the 0Z TAF issuance.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Hazardous conditions are expected on Lake Moultrie tonight
through Saturday morning.
- 2) Cold temperatures with low wind chills across coastal South
Carolina Sunday morning.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Hazardous conditions are expected on Lake Moultrie tonight through Saturday morning.
A dry cold front will approach the region today, then shift across the local area tonight, producing strong cold air advection in its wake while an enhanced pressure gradient persists between low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic Coast and high pressure across the Deep South. As a result, low-lvl mixing will become favorable across Lake Moultrie, resulting in west/northwest winds between 15-20 kt with gusts as high as 25-30 kt overnight. Waves should range between 1-2 ft. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect from 7 PM this evening until early Saturday afternoon. Boaters on Lake Moultrie should use extra caution since strong winds and rough waves can overturn small craft.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold temperatures with low wind chills across coastal South Carolina Sunday morning.
An arctic cold front associated with a low exiting off of the Mid- Atlantic coastline will dive across the Carolinas on Saturday yielding unseasonably cold temperatures. Also, surface high pressure will continue to settle along the Eastern Seaboard allowing for clear skies to persist through early next week. This set-up will support strong radiational cooling overnight on Saturday and temperatures are forecast to be well below normal. ESAT NAEFS highlights this well with a standard deviation of -3.0 to -3.5 for minimum temperatures on Sunday morning. It's also fairly high model confidence as IQR shows a 1 to 2 degree spread for minimum temperature values. Expect low temperatures to range into the low to mid 20s across SE South Carolina and upper 20s to low 30s across SE Georgia. Mixed the NBM/NBM25 into the overnight temperatures as the 06/13Z NBM appeared to be struggling to realize the strength of the radiational cooling regime. LREF probabilities continue to indicate 30-60% chance for seeing wind chills below 20F, especially across the Charleston Tri-County. Probabilities are lower further south, but the potential is still there. Therefore, a Cold Weather Advisory could be warranted for portions of the area overnight on Saturday.
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.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
0Z TAFs: VFR. A dry cold front will slide across the terminals around 5Z tonight. As the front passes, winds will veer from the northwest, favoring speeds around 10 kts. During the early daylight hours Saturday morning, winds will turn from the north- northwest between 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts. Gusts should diminish by sunset.
Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no concerns.
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.MARINE...
Conditions will gradually deteriorate this afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens across local waters, supporting Small Craft Advisories for offshore Georgia waters initially, followed by nearshore waters mid-late afternoon. Winds/seas should become more notably hazardous tonight as the pressure gradient tightens between low pressure strengthening off the Mid-Atlantic Coast and high pressure across the Deep South. Additionally, strong cold air advection arrives behind a dry cold front overnight, producing favorable low-lvl mixing into stronger wind fields. Small Craft Advisories will be ongoing for all waters, including the Charleston Harbor by evening hours, with latest HREF guidance supporting gale force wind gusts (near 90% probabilities) across a large portion of outer Georgia waters for much of the night. A Gale Warning is now in effect for offshore Georgia waters from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM Saturday morning. Conditions are expected to improve across all waters Saturday morning, with Small Craft Advisories likely ending across southern South Carolina and Georgia nearshore waters shortly after daybreak Saturday, then in the Charleston Harbor late Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon. Conditions continue to improve through Saturday night, likely ending Small Craft Advisories for remaining local waters early Sunday.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for AMZ330.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ352-354. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ374. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ374.
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Dennis/DPB/NED