FXUS62 KCHS 081732 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1232 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

The Key Message regarding the cold temperatures this morning has been removed. The Aviation section has been updated to reflect the 18Z TAFs.

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.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1) Rain chances return mid to late week.

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.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain chances return mid to late week.

Broad troughing will develop over the southeastern states mid week with a cold front dropping through the region late week. There are still some inconsistencies between models regarding the exact timing of the rainfall, but generally rain showers are expected Wednesday into Thursday. Rainfall likely won't be a drought buster, with NBM probabilities of >0.25" only around 10-20%. Rainfall is possible again this weekend, however uncertainty exists regarding the synoptic set up, shown through WPC Cluster Phase Space diagrams.

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.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 18z Monday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR prevails.

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.MARINE...

As high pressure builds into the region today NE wind gusts around 15 to 20 knots will be common this afternoon. High pressure will dominate through mid week, with a cold front dropping into the region mid week. Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. However, NBM probabilities for >25 knot winds Wednesday into Thursday are only around 20% in the Charleston County nearshore waters, with lower probabilities elsewhere.

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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.

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CPM