FXUS62 KCHS 080042 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 742 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains overhead through the end of the week, allowing dry conditions and above normal temperatures to prevail. A cold front then pushes across the region this weekend, causing rain chances and notably cooler temperatures to return.
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Tonight: Aloft, zonal flow will prevail through the evening, then gradually shift to broad ridging late night. Aft the sfc, high pressure will hold strong across the region prior to a weak backdoor cold front moving across the region during the second half of the night. Overall the impacts from the backdoor cold front will be minimal with no rain chances, but some low clouds could spread across the region with it late. Sfc winds will become light and/or go calm early evening, setting up the stage for fog formation once sfc temps cool into the low-mid 50s after midnight. A majority of model guidance indicates visibility reductions early Thursday morning into the first hour or two after daybreak with condensation pressure deficits in the single digits and a 1000mb geostrophic wind weakening as the night progresses. Patchy to areas of fog remain in the forecast for much of the area tonight, starting as early as mid- late evening in some spots, but more likely for areas during the second half of the night if thicker cirrus clouds depart the local area. Additionally, lower clouds associated with the backdoor front along with low-lvl flow weakening could support some element of stratus build down later tonight. Conditions will continue to be monitored for a potential a Special Weather Statement or Dense Fog Advisory overnight.
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Quasi-zonal flow aloft persist Thursday with some modest ridging building overhead by Friday. Meanwhile, at the sfc, expect sfc high pressure to linger, with a warm front progged to lift across the region Friday. This will allow dry conditions and above normal temperatures to prevail, despite there being an increase in cloud cover. Currently have highs forecast to rise into the mid to upper 70s, with perhaps a few locations across southeast Georgia reaching the lower 80s. More on record high possibilities in the Climate section below. Do want to point out, however, that temperatures along the coast will be a bit cooler, as highs only rise into the mid to upper 60s.
Upper level pattern begins to shift Saturday as a trough deepens across the central CONUS. This, along with its attendant sfc cold front are progged to gradually push eastward throughout the day, causing rain chances to return to the forecast - more on this below. Otherwise, look for another round of unseasonably warm (perhaps record breaking) temperatures to continue.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As noted above, expect rain chances to return Saturday evening ahead of FROPA, with the highest probabilities (30-50%) occurring after sunset. Overall rainfall amounts look fairly meager given the lack of moisture in place. Rather, expect breezy winds to be the more notable impact, with gusts up to 25 mph possible Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will also take a notable dive, as a cooler, drier airmass settles in behind the front. Currently have highs in the 60s Sunday dropping into the lower 50s by Monday. Temperatures then begin to slowly moderate again as we head into mid week, though still staying below seasonal norms. Otherwise, should see dry conditions prevail for the remainder of the extended period.
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.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions should prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals this evening, before MVFR cigs/vsbys arrive at CHS/JZI around 06Z Thursday and at SAV around 08Z Thursday overnight. Some guidance suggests IFR cigs arriving at the terminals later tonight, with TEMPO groups now displaying these conditions between 08-12Z Thursday. Fog is also possible at all terminals later tonight with vsbys around 1SM or less prior to and around daybreak Thursday. Much will depend on how long cirrus clouds remain across the region overnight, but vsby reductions appear the greatest near a backdoor cold front arriving late, especially at CHS/JZI terminals. VFR conditions should then return at all terminals by the 15-16Z Thursday timeframe, then persist through 00Z Friday.
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.MARINE...
Tonight: Winds will be light, generally around 10 kt or less early in the evening, then 5 kt or less late. These light wind speeds and a wind direction mostly parallel to the coastline suggest the potential for sea fog overnight. Models are hinting at its formation, as well as local tools. However, confidence is too low to include explicit mention in the forecast at this time. Seas are expected to remain around 2 ft or less overnight.
Thursday through Monday: Light northeasterly winds look to continue Thursday and Friday as high pressure settles overhead. While tranquil marine conditions are expected, do want to note that sea fog may be possible Thursday morning. Otherwise, look for south- southwesterly winds to become a bit breezy Saturday ahead of an advancing cold front. Winds become even breezier behind the front Sunday into Monday, with gusts up to 35 mph possible. Seas between 4 to 6 ft will also be possible during this time. Thus, a few SCA's may be needed - especially across the nearshore South Carolina waters, and nearshore/offshore Georgia waters.
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.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures: January 9: KCHS: 78/2012 KCXM: 76/1974 KSAV: 77/2008
January 10: KCHS: 79/2008 KSAV: 81/1972
Record High Minimum Temperatures: January 9: KCHS: 58/1946
January 10: KCHS: 60/1974 KCXM: 62/1974 KSAV: 63/1937
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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NEAR TERM...DPB SHORT TERM...SST LONG TERM...SST AVIATION...DPB/SST MARINE...DPB/SST