AFD_CHS

FXUS62 KCHS 080628 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 228 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for most of the SC Lowcountry and SE GA from 11 AM through 7 PM. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for Lake Moultrie from early this morning through noon today. The Aviation Section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance. A Gale Warning has been issued for the Charleston Harbor from early this morning through this afternoon.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1) Low RH values and breezy conditions will yield an elevated

fire danger today and Thursday. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for most of the forecast area today.

- 2) There is a High Risk of rip currents at all area beaches

today and Thursday.

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Low RH values and breezy conditions will yield an elevated fire danger today and Thursday. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for most of the forecast area today.

As high pressure continues to build into the area, drier air will be advected into the region. Dew points this afternoon are forecast to dip into the upper 20s far inland, with 30s elsewhere west of I-95. With high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s forecast, minimum RH values will be in the low 20s across Jenkins/Allendale/Screven Counties, with <30% elsewhere west of I-95. While RH values are expected to remain elevated along the immediate beaches, across Charleston/Coastal Colleton/Berkeley Counties RH values could drop as low as 30% away from the beaches. Breezy NE winds are expected today as the high pressure builds into the region, with gusts generally 20-25 mph. The highest gusts are expected along the immediate coastline, where gusts could approach 30 to as high as 35 mph. The combination of the gusty winds, the low RHs, and dry fuels will create an elevated fire danger today. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for most of the forecast area from 11 AM this morning through 7 PM this evening.

Lake Moultrie: Breezy northeast winds will strengthen early this morning, becoming sustained near 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for Lake Moultrie, valid through noon today. Winds will remain breezy throughout the day, but below Lake Wind thresholds.

Conditions look to improve on Thursday, with RH values slightly higher than today and lower wind gusts as well. However, far inland zones could see near critical RH/wind gusts and an additional Fire Danger Statement cannot be ruled out.

KEY MESSAGE 2: There is a High Risk of rip currents at all area beaches today and Thursday.

Strong NE winds and building swells will result in a High Risk for rip currents at all area beaches today and Thursday. High Risk for rip currents will likely continue into Friday at all area beaches.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Prevailing VFR through the 06Z TAF period at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV. Gusty NE winds will develop a few hours before sunrise, gusting to around 20 to 25 knots at all terminals. Gusts will surge again shortly after sunrise, with gusts to 30 knots possible. Wind gusts could reach as high as 35 knots at KJZI. Gusts will diminish around sunset at all terminals.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR, with breezy NE winds continuing into Thursday before weakening overnight into Friday.

.MARINE...

Today: Strong NE winds will continue through the week as a wedge of high pressure begins to move off the northeast coast, with seas remaining unsettled and hazardous. The strongest winds are expected today as the pinched gradient is tightest, leading to Gales across all waters. Did upgrade the Charleston Harbor to a Gale Warning as it is looking that at least the mouth of the harbor will see gales into the earl afternoon, with a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) needed once the winds decrease out of gale strength. The breezy winds will lead to impressive wave heights, near 8 feet along the coast and up towards 16 feet ~40-60 nm out in the zone from Savannah to Altamaha Sound.

Thursday - Sunday: While the general trend is for winds to decrease overnight into Thursday, which would allow for the gales to expire as currently planned, some model guidance continues to suggest that gales may linger into Thursday afternoon. Latest 00Z models indicate the risk is generally near 20+nm out in the waters from South Santee, SC to Savannah, GA. The potential for gales diminishes greatly by Thursday evening and once the Gale Warnings come down, they will need to be replaced by SCA's. Winds will likely come down below SCA thresholds on Friday, but seas could remain quite elevated through Saturday. Models are indicating another surface high pressure may form Saturday into Sunday off the northeast coast, though winds do not appear to be as strong as the current system.

High Surf: With very strong northeast winds across the coastal waters, seas are building quickly this morning. 5+ ft breaker waves in the surf zone continue to be expected, especially for the beaches south of Charleston County, and there remains a High Surf Advisory in effect from 8 am Wednesday through 8 pm Thursday. At least minor beach erosion can be expected with the combination of strong and persistent northeast winds with 5+ ft breakers in the surf zone.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ117-119-139-

141. High Surf Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ117-119-139-141.

SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ048>051.

High Surf Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Thursday for SCZ048>051. Lake Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for SCZ045.

MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ330.

Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ350-352-354-374.

APT/CPM