FXUS62 KCHS 262306 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 606 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections updated.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Strong winds and rough waves expected to bring hazardous conditions across Lake Moultrie today.
- 2) A passing front will result in widespread rainfall late
tonight through Friday night.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong winds and rough waves expected to bring hazardous conditions across Lake Moultrie today.
30-35 kt 1000 mb geostrophic winds this afternoon will support breezy conditions across the area with frequent 20-25 kt gusts. Winds over Lake Moultrie may actually be somewhat less than over land due to relatively poor mixing between the warm air and the cool lake waters. The ongoing Lake Wind Advisory is pretty marginal based on winds at Pinopolis this afternoon, but we'll leave it in effect until 5pm for occasional 25 kt gusts, mainly near shore.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A passing front will result in widespread rainfall from late tonight through Saturday.
A broad upper trough will shift east overnight, then an embedded shortwave will move through on Friday. A weak surface low will move through on Friday along a weak cold front that will move offshore in the evening. Decent moisture advection is expected overnight into Friday with Precipitable Water values reaching 1.3-1.4". A few showers could brush past the inland SC/GA counties through this evening, then the brunt of the precipitation will move through late tonight through Friday, with some lingering precip into Friday night. Weak elevated instability might support an isolated thunderstorm tonight but there are no indications of severe potential. Overall precipitation totals still look on the order of 1-1.5" with the greatest totals across the northwest half of the area.
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.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
0Z TAFs: Widespread light to moderate rain will overspread the terminals late tonight or shortly after daybreak Friday. Increasing chance for MVFR ceilings to develop, with IFR ceilings possible after daybreak Friday morning through the afternoon. Only brief visibility restrictions below MVFR expected when precipitation becomes slightly heavier.
Extended Aviation Outlook: MVFR or lower ceilings expected Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Brief visibility restrictions possible in rain showers.
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.MARINE...
Gusty SW winds and elevated seas will taper off this evening, allowing the Small Craft Advisories to expire. Another round of Small Craft Advisories is expected late Sunday night through Monday night as strong NE winds develop behind another cold front.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ350-
352-374.
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NED