FXUS62 KCHS 181054 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 554 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The aviation section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A period of unsettled and warm conditions for the end of
the week into the weekend.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A period of unsettled and warm conditions expected for the end of the week and into the weekend.
A ridge of high pressure centered over the Gulf of America builds overnight into Thursday, with warm and moist southwesterly surface flow setting up over the region into the weekend. Temperatures throughout the atmospheric column consistently reach and/or exceed the 90th percentile wrt climatology, as the latest ensemble situational awareness tables continue to show, which will result in daily maximum surface temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s Thursday through Saturday, peaking on Friday. Overnight low temperatures will be similarly warm in the upper 50s to lower 60s, which will be closer to our normal daily highs for this time of year in the mid 60s compared to normal lows in the lower 40s. The forecast does not currently contain any new records, though we'll get closest to the records set for February 20 as we'll be warmest that day with inland areas in the lower to mid 80s.
While scattered diurnally driven showers will be possible each afternoon, isentropic lift from positive theta-e advection will add to the unsettled conditions at times, particularly on Friday and Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible when instability levels rise, with the 18.00Z models indicating that may happen on Saturday as a cold front starts to move towards the region from the north. While details are unclear, some of the various AI/ML output would suggest monitoring for severe thunderstorms on Saturday.
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.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 12Z Thursday. Rounds of mid and high clouds should continue to pass over the terminals through the TAf period. Southwest winds should strengthen with gusts between 15 to 20 kts once mixing begins around 16Z. Gusts should end around sunset.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR through mid-week. The potential for flight restrictions will increase late week into the weekend with possible fog development during the pre-dawn hours.
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.MARINE...
Today, the marine zones will remain between high pressure centered over the western Atlantic and a trough over the Carolina Foothills. Southwest winds are forecast to strengthen this morning, with gusty conditions this afternoon into early this evening. Gusts across the Charleston County nearshore waters may approach 25 kts, but expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. The pressure gradient should weaken for Thursday into Thursday night. However, as a cold front approaches from the west on Friday, the pressure gradient across the waters will begin to steepen. Small Craft Conditions may develop across the SC waters on Friday. Expect increased potential of stronger winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions Saturday night and Sunday behind a passing cold front. Gale wind gusts are possible across the outer GA waters Sunday night.
The pressure pattern will support southwest winds, generally parallel to the coast, today through the rest of the week. The southwest winds should provide dewpoints in the low 60s Thursday afternoon through Friday. Buoy observations indicate that the nearshore water temperatures generally range around 50 degrees. Given parallel winds and dewpoints around 10 degrees warmer than the water temperatures, at least patchy sea fog is expected. Probabilistic guidance peaks on Thursday with likely values of visibility less than 0.5 miles.
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.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
February 20: KCHS: 82/2018 KCXM: 78/1918 KSAV: 84/1991
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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APT/NED