FXUS62 KCHS 190556 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1256 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure is expected to prevail across the area through the week. A cold front is expected to move through this weekend.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Through Sunrise: Patchy fog is possible, especially along the coast. Headlines may eventually be needed.
Today and Tonight: The mid-levels will consist of weak ridging building over the Southern MS Valley. This will cause flow overhead to shift to the NW, while heights gradually rise. At the surface, High pressure will prevail across our area, while a front is located to our north. The High will bring our area dry conditions with passing clouds. Temperatures will be well above normal. Highs will peak in the upper 70s to lower 80s, except cooler at the beaches. Lows will generally be in the 50s.
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.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday and Friday: A strong upper-lvl ridge with nearly 590 DM will be present over the Gulf on Thursday and Friday, as a surface low develops across the central CONUS. Expect temperatures to remain generally 10 to 12 degrees above normal with a rain-free forecast. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will reach near record highs (see Climate section), with upper 70s to low 80s across the SC Lowcountry to the low to mid 80s across SE GA.
Saturday: As upper-lvl ridging becomes suppressed by a progressive shortwave traversing across portions southeastern Canada, an associated cold is expected to pass through overnight. Deterministic guidance seems to be in better agreement with the timing and position of the frontal passage, but some uncertainty still remains on the phasing of the H5 ridge located along the Atlantic coast. Forecast notes 20% PoPs ahead of the frontal passage, and could impact the area in the form of isolated to scattered showers. Rainfall amounts remain light as primary forcing remains north of the region. It is unlikely to add much relief to the ongoing severe drought across the inland counties. Temperatures will remain above normal with similar conditions to the previous couple days.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
After the cold front passes through the region on Saturday night, modest cooling will allow temperatures to return to near normal throughout the period. Expect high pressure to build in across the region and allow for zonal flow to take hold of the forecast on Sunday and Monday. Thereafter, a pronounced shortwave positioned across the Great Plains will start to approach the region on Tuesday and possibly introduce a pattern change mid-week, however a good amount of uncertainty persists on the timing and position of this shortwave.
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.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z TAFs: VFR.
Extended Aviation Forecast: Prevailing VFR. A cold front could bring at least brief flight restrictions Saturday, but the precipitation and wind characteristics of the front remain uncertain.
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.MARINE...
Through Sunrise: No hazardous weather is expected.
Today and Tonight: High pressure will prevail across our area, while a front is located to our north. The High will bring tranquil conditions to the coastal waters. Expect sustained winds 10 kt or less and seas 1-3 ft.
Thursday through Monday: As surface high pressure continues to build across the local marine zones, west-southwesterly winds will remain light and variable. Ahead of the approaching cold front, wind speeds could increase to 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts this weekend. Seas will generally range from 1 to 3 ft.
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.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
November 19: KSAV: 85/1942
November 20: KCXM: 78/1900 KSAV: 83/1942
November 21: KSAV: 82/2011
November 22: KCXM: 79/1997 KSAV: 82/1997
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...