FXUS62 KCHS 162348 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 648 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will move through the area tonight before high pressure returns early next week. A warm front should lift north of the region by Wednesday, with unseasonable warm conditions remaining until next weekend.
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Visible satellite and sfc wind observations indicated that a dry back-door cold front was located over central NC extending SW along the I-85 corridor of SC/GA. Based on satellite trends and recent runs of the HRRR, the cold front is expected to push across the CHS Tri-county this evening, reaching Savannah around midnight. After the front, winds will shift from the north and the sky should clear. Using a blend of MOS, low temperatures are forecast to range from the low 40s inland to the upper 40s along the coast.
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday: By daybreak, the cold front is forecast to remain south of the FL/GA line. In the wake of the front, a modified air mass sourced from central Canada will build across the forecast area through the day. As high pressure slowly slides over the region, light northeast winds should remain through the daylight hours across inland SE GA and SC. It is possible that a weak sea breeze may develop along the GA and lower SC coast during the afternoon, veering winds from the east. As a result, H85 temperatures are forecast to cool by only 1-2 C between 12-0Z. The combination of cool LLVL thicknesses and mostly sunny sky should yield high temperatures in the upper 60s across the SC Lowcountry to the low 70s across SE GA. Dewpoints are forecast to dip between 25 to 30 F along and west of I-95, to the low to mid 30s to the east during the early to mid afternoon. Humidity values should fall below 25 percent inland of the coastal counties, some teens expected across inland GA. Fortunately, light winds will limit any fire weather concerns, see Fire Weather section below.
Tuesday through Wednesday: An organized low pressure system will track east across the Central Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley through the period. The CWA will remain east of the low and west of high pressure over the western Atlantic. This pattern yield weak return flow across the region with increasing llvl thicknesses. High temperatures should return to near normal on Tuesday, values in the low 70s across the SC Lowcountry and mid 70s across SE GA. On Wednesday, WAA and mostly sunny conditions should result in high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Conditions should remain rain-free through mid-week.
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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Long term guidance shows a strong, nearly 590 DM, ridge centered over the Gulf on Thursday and Friday. NAEFS indicates that late Thursday into Friday, H5 heights and temperatures across portions of the Southeast U.S. will approach 2 units of standardized anomaly during the late work week. Given the strong ridge over the region, temperatures will remain generally 10 to 12 degrees above normal with no precipitation. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will reach near record highs (see Climate section), with near 80 across the SC Lowcountry to the low to mid 80s across SE GA.
On Saturday, low confidence with the timing and placement of the late week low pressure/cold front. 0/6Z guidance indicated that the strong H5 ridge will remain along the Atlantic coast through much of the day, resulting in the slower arrival of the cold front. However, 12z guidance, especially the GFS, is much faster with a closed low ejecting east across the Southern Plains Friday night, passing over the forecast area late Saturday. The NBM based forecast is certainly siding with the slower scenario, featuring near record high temperatures and overnight SCHC PoPs for showers. It is possible that the forecast may trend cooler and wetter if the 12Z guidance holds.
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.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
17/00z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 18/00z.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. It is possible that periods of ground fog may develop during the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday.
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.MARINE...
Tonight: A cold front will drop south through the waters tonight. West winds will turn north and increase to 15-20 kt after FROPA. There is some concern gusts could get close to 25 kt over the South Carolina nearshore and Georgia offshore zones overnight, but most guidance suggests any instances of gusts at this level should remain infrequent. A Small Craft Advisory is not needed as a result, but this will be watched carefully through the night. Waves will subside to 1-2 ft nearshore waters and 2-3 ft offshore waters.
Monday through Friday: Broad high pressure will remain over the marine zones through the period. Wind speeds are forecast to favor values between 5 to 10 kts. Seas should remain between 1-3 ft.
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.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
November 20: KCHS: 82/1942 KCXM: 78/1900 KSAV: 83/1942
November 21: KSAV: 82/2011
November 22: KSAV: 82/1997
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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