FXUS62 KCHS 162343 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 643 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The aviation section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A period of unsettled and warm conditions for the end of
the week into the weekend.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A period of unsettled and warm conditions for the end of the week into the weekend.
A ridge of high pressure centered over the Gulf builds during the latter half of the week, with warm and moist southwesterly surface flow setting up over the region. Temperatures throughout the atmospheric column consistently flirt with the 90th percentile of climatology, per the latest ensemble situational awareness tables, which will result in daily maximum surface temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s Thursday through Saturday. Overnight low temperatures will warm in the upper 50s to lower 60s, which will be closer to our normal daily highs for this time of year. Not currently forecasting record temperatures, but that could change with future forecast updates.
Unsettled conditions will likely accompany the warm temperatures at times, as isentropic lift from positive theta-e advection should provide enough lift to spark least scattered showers. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible when instability increases (SBCAPE values ~200-400 J/kg), and while model agreement is overall good, agreement is not high enough to pinpoint what day thunderstorms are expected.
A cold front is expected to push through the region at some point this weekend.
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.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 00Z Wednesday.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR through mid-week. The potential for flight restrictions will increase late week into the weekend with possible fog development during the pre-dawn hours.
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.MARINE...
Extended the Small Craft Advisory for the offshore GA waters until 11pm this evening based on latest wave guidance keeping some 6 ft seas in outer portions of this zone through the evening.
High pressure will continue to build across the marine zones through the middle of the week. Very warm and humid conditions are forecast to build across the region Thursday and Friday. Given shelf water temperatures around 50 degrees, wind directions parallel to the coast, and dewpoints around 60 degrees, sea fog is possible during the late week. Increasing rain chances Friday into Friday night, as well as winds gusting 20-25 kt, could disrupt any sea fog. At this time, mention of patchy sea fog will be limited to Thursday. However, if rain chances decrease Friday and beyond then the potential for sea fog will increase.
A cold front is expected to push across the waters this weekend. Small Craft Advisories could be needed for a portion of the marine zones as wind gusts are forecast to approach 25 kt.
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.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
February 20: KCHS: 82/2018 KCXM: 78/1918 KSAV: 84/1991
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for AMZ374.
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BRS/DPB/JRL