FXUS62 KCHS 230611 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 211 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation Section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance. All Key Messages and sections have been updated.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A strong backdoor cold front will move through this evening, resulting in breezy winds and cooler conditions Tuesday.
- 2) High pressure briefly returns late this week, followed by
another cold front Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A strong backdoor cold front will move through this evening, resulting in breezy winds and cooler conditions Tuesday.
As noted in days past, will see a strong backdoor cold front push across the region late this evening. A line of showers and thunderstorms may develop ahead of this boundary, with coverage forecast to remain limited given the lack of moisture in place. While severe weather is not anticipated at this time, may still see some isolated heavy downpours, lightning, and gusts up to 40 to 50 MPH.
The more notable impacts of this front look to occur Tuesday, as breezy northeasterly winds and cooler temperatures prevail. Most places are likely to see gusts up to 25 MPH, with areas along the immediate coast having a 50-60% chance of seeing gusts in excess of 30 MPH. In regard to temperatures, expect afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s Monday to fall back in the mid to upper 60s Tuesday and Wednesday.
KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure briefly returns late this week, followed by another cold front Friday night into Saturday.
Sfc high pressure builds across the region Thursday, allowing temperatures to moderate back above seasonal norms. Currently have highs in the 70s to lower 80s Thursday rising into the mid to upper 80s by Friday. May even see a few locations across interior southeast Georgia take a shot a 90 degrees. Otherwise, expect yet another cold front to take aim at the region heading into the weekend. While cooler temperatures look likely, model certainty remains low concerning the possibility of any showers or storms with FROPA. Certainly something to keep an eye on in the coming days ahead of Easter.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 06Z Tuesday. Prior to the 6Z TAFs, KCLX VAD wind profile indicated that winds at 2 kft were 40 kts. The KCHS and KJZI TAFs will feature a mention of LLWS until 14z. Winds will remain from the WSW this afternoon as a cold front approaches from the north. Forecast soundings and MOS indicates that each terminals will see gusts around 20 kts develop around 14Z and continue until 21Z. A band of scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front across KCHS and KJZI from 23Z to 3Z, highlighted with TEMPOs. The convection of coverage may decrease before reaching KSAV by 3Z. In the wake of the front, winds will shift from the north with gusts between 20 to 25 kts.
Extended Aviation Outlook: On Tuesday, winds will shift from the NE and gust 20 to 25 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Today: The pressure pattern ahead of the approaching cold front should support support southwest winds between 10 to 15 kts with gusts around 20 kts. Wave heights should range between 3-5 ft.
This evening, guidance remain consistent with the overall timing and placement of a backdoor cold front push across the marine zones by 0Z. In the wake the front, the pressure gradient is forecast to increase to 4-5 mbs tonight into midday Tuesday. Winds across the Atlantic waters, outside the Charleston Harbor, are forecast to turn from the NE and strengthen to around gales around midnight tonight. Gale gusts are possible through the daylight hours Tuesday. The Gale Watch for the SC and GA Atlantic waters has been upgraded to a Gale Warning. In addition, wave heights are forecast to peak on Tuesday, ranging from 6-9 ft within 20 NM and 9-11 ft between 20-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Charleston Harbor, with NE gusts around 30 knots.
On Wednesday, a building sfc ridge should result in decreasing winds across the coastal waters. As a result, wave heights should gradually subsided, however, 6 ft seas may linger over the outer GA waters through Wednesday. Conditions on Thursday and Friday should feature winds between 10 to 15 kts and seas between 2 to 3 ft.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
March 23: KCHS: 87/1995
March 27: KCHS: 87/2021 KCXM: 81/2021 KSAV: 89/2021
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ330.
Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350-352. Gale Warning from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ354. Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ374.
&&
$$
NED/SST