AFD_CHS

FXUS62 KCHS 052326 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 626 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

The Aviation section was updated to for the 00z TAF issuance.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1) Areas to widespread fog anticipated across the majority of

southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia tonight into Friday morning.

- 2) Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through the

middle of next week.

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Areas to widespread fog anticipated across the majority of southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia tonight into Friday morning.

The main forecast concern is once again fog and low stratus. Satellite imagery shows diurnal cumulus quickly dissipating with the loss of heating and the inland progression of the sea breeze. This will leave behind mostly clear skies as we head into the late evening hours. Temperatures today were quite warm with many areas rising into the low 80s. Dew points mixed out into the upper 50s to low 60s, and we should reach those crossover temperatures with tonight's lows. However, we only anticipate overnight lows falling into the upper 50s for most of the area, and we will likely hang on to slightly more low-level onshore flow. So conditions are certainly still supportive for fog development, but perhaps a bit less than the last few nights. We still expect to see at least areas of dense fog for a few hours late tonight and into Friday morning. Model guidance is tough to trust going forward given that much of it would suggest that there is already widespread fog across the nearshore coastal waters. It again appears likely that we will need Special Weather Statements or Dense Fog Advisories to address the fog during the overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through the middle of next week.

Sfc high pressure extending from the western Atlantic along with mid-lvl ridging aloft will dominate the weather pattern across the Southeast today into the middle of next week, favoring a warm southerly flow under ample sun each day ahead of a front stalling/dissipating just inland Monday, followed by a cold front arriving with higher chances of showers and thunderstorms during the second half of next week. The bulk of guidance indicates 1000-850mb thickness levels supportive of high temps in the mid-upper 70s (coastal areas) to low-mid 80s inland each day, with afternoon highs warmest Sunday through Wednesday when the mid-lvl ridge is directly over the region. Overnight lows will remain mild as well, generally in the upper 50s and lower 60s. These temperatures (both highs and lows) are about 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Despite these warm temperatures, no records are forecast at this time, but should come within a few degrees of a record high at Savannah, GA (SAV) on Sunday (current record 86 degrees). Heading into the later half of next week, increasing chances of showers/non- severe thunderstorms on Thursday should limit highs to the mid 70s to around 80 degrees, while lows become noticeably cooler Thursday night, generally in the mid-upper 40s inland to lower 50s along coastal areas.

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

The 00z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. Fog and low stratus is again the primary forecast concern. Current thinking is that fog will begin to develop and impact the terminals around 08-09z, with a period of dense fog possible between 09-13z. The fog should again mix out and lift by around 13-14z as surface heating commences. Once the fog dissipates, VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the 00z TAF period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Restrictive ceilings are possible overnight into the early morning hours each night through the weekend due to low stratus/fog.

.MARINE...

Tonight: Rather benign conditions will prevail across the local waters with south to southeast winds around 5-10 knots and seas 2-4 feet. The main concern is for the development of fog later this evening and through the overnight. With onshore flow, the nearshore waters closer to the coast are definitely the main area of concern. Dense fog will be possible and we could eventually need Dense Fog Advisories for portions of the waters including Charleston Harbor.

High pressure will remain centered over the western Atlantic through the weekend, resulting in an easterly/southeasterly flow through Saturday. Winds are then expected to shift out of the southwest overnight on Saturday into Sunday morning and persist through early next week. Also, marine conditions look to remain under Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria. However, sea fog will continue to be a reoccurring theme through early next week as warm, moist air moves over cooler shelf waters. Like the previous nights, the fog could become dense at times, reducing visibility for mariners. Thus, additional Marine Dense Fog Advisories could be needed through early next week.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.

BSH