FXUS62 KCHS 082347 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 747 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The thunderstorm risk has ended for today and Key Message 1 has been removed. The Aviation section has been updated for the 00z TAF issuance.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Wednesday,
along with increased rain chances.
- 2) A cold front may bring widespread rainfall on Thursday in
addition to breezy conditions.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Wednesday, along with increased rain chances.
The mid-levels will consist of zonal flow overhead Monday. Ridging builds over the Deep South Tuesday, then shifts over the Southeast U.S. on Wednesday. At the surface, a stalling/dissipating front will be to our northwest on Monday, while High pressure is in the western Atlantic. The High will prevail in this location through Wednesday. This pattern will usher moisture into our area through the middle of next week. NBM POPs should be slight chance late Monday, then increasing to chance POPs Tuesday. Any showers/thunderstorms during this time period are expected to be fast moving, leading to low rainfall amounts. No severe weather is expected.
Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through Wednesday. Highs will range from near 80 degrees to the upper 80s, except cooler temperatures along/near the coast. Wednesday should be the hottest day across our entire area with a few spots across our interior GA counties making a run for the 90 degree mark. Lows each night will generally be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front may bring widespread rainfall on Thursday in addition to breezy conditions.
The mid-levels will consist of a trough quickly moving over the East Coast early Thursday, then offshore from the late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, a cold front, will quickly move from west to east through our area, during the morning or afternoon, shifting offshore during the evening and overnight hours. There will be a deep plume of moisture ahead of this front. The combination of the moisture and lift may generate widespread showers across our area. Though, due to the fast movement, rainfall amounts look to remain on the lighter side at under 0.5". Given the unseasonably warm temperatures ahead of the front, there should be just enough instability to fire off some thunderstorms. But the risk of severe weather is low given the unfavorable (early) timing of the front. Additionally, expect breezy southerly winds ahead of the front. Winds will clock around to the west/northwest behind it and increase due to cold air advection and building strong High pressure.
The High will bring dry conditions for the end of the week. High temperatures will be a few degrees above normal on Friday, then well above normal on Saturday.
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.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The 00z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. There could still be a period of showers moving through KCHS and KJZI through about 03z, but not significant impacts are expected. Fog and stratus will be a concern again tonight, with the low ceilings likely being the main driver of flight categories. The main time period of concern is roughly from 08-13z for IFR conditions at all 3 TAF sites. Stratus and any fog should lift by around 14z and VFR will return. As of now, little to no shower and thunderstorm activity is expected Monday afternoon and evening.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible each night and morning through midweek due to low stratus/fog. Brief flight restrictions are possible due to showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. A cold front should bring flight restrictions and breezy conditions on Thursday.
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.MARINE...
Tonight: Southerly winds will generally range between 10-15 kt through the period. Some gusts to 20 kt are possible across nearshore SC waters as well. Seas will remain in the 2-4 ft range nearshore and up to 4-5 ft across offshore Georgia waters. Another round of patchy to areas of fog is expected to develop across the nearshore waters late tonight. There is potential for dense fog to develop, but there are concerns that afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm activity could disrupt the fog environment. Confidence in the development of dense fog is considerably less than the last few nights.
Extended Marine: High pressure will be the dominant weather feature across our local waters through the middle of this week. Expect south/southwest wind sustained in the 5-10 kt range and seas 2-4 ft. A cold front will approach from the west late Wednesday, causing winds and seas to increase to Small Craft Advisory levels across all of our ocean zones. The cold front should cross through our waters Thursday, causing winds to veer behind it and further increase. Gusts to gale force are possible across portions of our waters Thursday and Thursday night. High pressure building into the region will lead to improving conditions for the end of the week.
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.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
March 9: KCHS: 87/1974 KCXM: 84/1974 KSAV: 88/1974
March 10: KCHS: 90/1974 KCXM: 87/1974 KSAV: 91/1974
March 11: KCHS: 85/2015 KCXM: 82/1997 KSAV: 87/2015
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
March 8: KCHS: 63/2022 KCXM: 65/2022 KSAV: 65/1880
March 9: KCHS: 66/2022 KCXM: 65/2022 KSAV: 65/2022
March 10: KCHS: 64/1974 KCXM: 65/1974 KSAV: 63/1909
March 11: KCHS: 63/2015 KCXM: 64/2016 KSAV: 64/1974
March 12: KCHS: 62/1985 KCXM: 64/1973 KSAV: 65/1973
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.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar is scheduled for radome panel replacement March 14-16, 2026. The radar will be down during this time. Users are encouraged to use data from the following nearby radar sites during the maintenance outage:
KCAE - Columbia, SC KLTX - Wilmington, NC KJAX - Jacksonville, FL KVAX - Moody AFB, GA KJGX - Robbins AFB, GA
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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BSH