FXUS62 KCHS 011855 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 255 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation Section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Warm temperatures will continue, with isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms possible in the latter half of the week.
- 2) A cold front could bring increased rain chances late this
weekend into early next week.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Warm temperatures will continue, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the latter half of the week.
While broad upper-lvl ridging continues to dominate much of the forecast through the course of the week, sfc high pressure will largely prevail as a weak coastal trough tries to nudge itself onshore. As a result, southeasterly flow will yield warm temperatures through the end of the week, with the latest guidance supporting high temps. in the low to mid 80s (away from the coastline). It's important to note that this is 5 to 10 degrees above normal for early April. This pattern will yield limited diurnal convection, however isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms could initiate in the afternoons. However, the threat for severe weather remains quite low with the weak shear and instability present.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front could bring increased rain chances late this weekend into early next week.
Mid level ridging will give way to a trough shifting into the eastern U.S. Sunday into Monday. This will bring the next cold front and higher rain chances to the area. Model guidance indicates the front is likely to arrive late Sunday into early Monday. If this scenario holds, any preceding convection would likely occur during the overnight or early morning period when instability is at its diurnal minimum. Therefore there is currently no threat for severe weather, but will continue to monitor for changes. Significant rainfall looks unlikely as latest NBM indicates the probability for >0.50" in the 24-hour period is only 10-30%, but certainly any rain will be beneficial given the ongoing drought. Notably cooler temperatures will follow the passage of the front.
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.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect mainly VFR conditions at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 18Z Wednesday, with a chance of some patchy fog/shallow ground fog developing at all terminals tomorrow morning (between 08Z-12Z). Kept the mention of 6SM MIFG at all terminals tonight, but TEMPO groups for patchy fog could be needed a few hours prior to daybreak Thursday.
Extended Aviation Outlook: TEMPO flight restrictions are possible at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals with daily showers and/or thunderstorms this weekend, and with the arrival of a cold front early next week.
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.MARINE...
Through Tonight: As high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across the Southeastern CONUS, expect light southeasterly winds to prevail. As east-southeasterly swell sets up across the Atlantic this afternoon, seas will range from 2-3 ft in the nearshore waters and 3-4 ft in the outer Georgia waters.
Extended Marine: High pressure will persist across the region through late week, supporting winds/seas that remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions. Subtle coastal troughing could bring a few showers/thunderstorms on Thursday. A cold front will approach over the weekend, which is expected to advance across the local area Sunday/Monday, bringing a period of enhanced winds/higher seas. Conditions appear to support solid Small Craft Advisories across a majority of waters early next week.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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BRS/Dennis