FXUS62 KCHS 061801 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 101 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail across the region most of this week, bringing dry conditions and above normal temperatures. A cold front may bring showers and colder temperatures to our area this weekend.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Another quiet day is expected through the remainder of the afternoon and into tonight as surface high pressure centered over Florida dominates the region. Low-level flow will be southwesterly as a low pressure system and its associated trough traverse eastward over the Great Lakes. W to SW winds this afternoon could gust 15 to 20 mph, diminishing around sunset. Temperatures this afternoon will be very similar to Monday, generally peaking in the upper 60s to 70 in a few spots in SE GA.
Winds are forecast to remain slightly elevated through the overnight period, remaining around 5mph. However, model guidance is pretty consistent in showing the formation of fog/low stratus across portions of the forecast area, mainly in SE GA. Fog has been added to the forecast in the early morning hours through the first few hours of daylight on Tuesday. There is the potential for the patchy fog to be dense at times. Overnight lows will be rather mild again, only dropping into the mid to upper 50s.
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.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures will prevail Wednesday through Friday. A quasi-zonal mid-level flow will transition toward an East Coast ridge toward late week while surface high pressure moves east. High temps all three days will be in the 70s, though Friday continues to look the warmest as the surface high moves offshore and the southerly warm advection regime strengthens.
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.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will move into the area late Saturday afternoon and off the coast by late Saturday night. A few showers may accompany the front but a relative lack of moisture and forcing should limit overall precipitation accumulations. A cooldown is expected early next week with temperatures a few degrees below normal.
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.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The 18Z TAFs are VFR through the remainder of the afternoon and into the overnight. There is a chance of fog/low stratus developing early Tuesday morning and lingering into the first few hours after sunrise. The greatest chance for impacts will be at KSAV, where MVFR conditions are included from 07 to 15Z. There is the potential for IFR or even LIFR, however confidence is too low to include mention in the 18Z TAFs. While there are no restrictions included at KCHS/KJZI there is a chance at some transient MVFR cigs/reduced visibilities in the early morning hours. VFR will prevail after around 15Z at all terminals.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Nighttime ceiling restrictions possible especially at KSAV Wednesday through Saturday. Brief flight restrictions possible at all terminals Saturday night as scattered showers move through.
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.MARINE...
Rest of This Afternoon through tonight: A tightening southwesterly gradient will develop through the remainder of this afternoon across the marine waters, yielding increased wind speeds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Small Craft Conditions are not anticipated, however the Charleston County waters and the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters could see a gust or two to 25 knots. Seas are expected to average 2-3 feet through the period, but could get up to 4 feet in the Charleston County waters and the outer GA waters overnight.
Wednesday through Saturday: Winds/seas will remain well below advisory criteria Wednesday through Saturday. However, with forecast dewpoints in the lower 60s and water temps in the mid 50s, conditions are somewhat favorable for sea fog development, particularly at night if land-based fog moves offshore.
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.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
January 7: KSAV: 79/1991
January 9: KCHS: 78/2012 KCXM: 76/1974 KSAV: 77/2008
January 10: KCHS: 79/2008 KSAV: 81/1972
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
January 9: KCHS: 58/1946
January 10: KCHS: 60/1974 KCXM: 62/1974
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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NEAR TERM...CPM SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...CPM/JRL MARINE...CPM/JRL