FXUS62 KCHS 272319 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 619 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through the weekend. A low pressure system could impact the area early next week.
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Early this evening: Satellite imagery shows that the feed of cirrus continues to scoot by offshore leaving the forecast area under clear skies. High pressure remains centered to the west, leaving the area under the pressure gradient of its eastern periphery. This will be enough gradient to maintain 4-8 mph of northwest flow at least through the early morning hours. As sunrise Friday approaches, the gradient should relax enough to allow for improving radiational cooling conditions. The result is expected to be a widespread freeze away from the immediate coast and inland of HW-17 upper 20s should be common.
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday and Saturday: Aloft, a large mid-upper lvl trough extending across the Northeast United States early weekend will shift east across the Atlantic, placing a mainly zonal flow south of its base across the Southeast United States. At the sfc, high pressure will remain centered across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, maintaining dry and sunny conditions for a bulk of the weekend. However, the airmass will continue to usher in cold air to the region, resulting in afternoon highs in the low- mid 50s Friday, then low-mid 50s north to upper 50s/lower 60s south on Saturday as the airmass begins to modify under another full day of sun. The main concern continues to address overnight temps Friday night, with temps easily reaching the freezing mark across all inland counties. Low temps should dip into the mid-upper 20s inland, but remain in the mid-upper 30s to around 40 degrees near the coast.
Sunday: Sfc high pressure centered across the Mid-Atlantic states will begin to shift east across the Atlantic while an inverted trough develops and becomes positioned off the Southeast Coast. A few afternoon/evening showers could develop across the local area in response to the pattern, mainly as isentropic ascent strengthens locally while moisture deepens in advance of a front to the west early week. The most notable change will be temperatures to start off the week with warm air advection taking place within a southerly flow. Afternoon highs should peak in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with even a few mid 70s for locations along and south of the I-16 corridor in Southeast Georgia.
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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front is anticipated to shift across the region Sunday night, leading to few/scattered showers across the local area. Latest guidance continues to suggest the potential for scattered shower activity on Monday as the front is positioned offshore and forcing associated with isentropic ascent and an inverted coastal trough persists early next week. The highest potential for rainfall should come Tuesday as a low pressure system develops across the northern Gulf (near the front), then tracks across the Southeast. Numerous to widespread showers along with weak instability supporting a few thunderstorms could support rainfall amounts generally in the 0.5 to 1 inch range with isolated higher amounts. Increasing clouds and precip coverage north of any front should also limit afternoon highs early week, generally to the upper 50s/lower 60s inland to mid-upper 60s near the coast. By daybreak Wednesday, the low pressure system and any front will be offshore with high pressure building across the Southeast in its wake. This should yield dry and cooler conditions mid week, with afternoon highs generally in the mid-upper 50s inland to lower 60s near the coast.
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.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00z Saturday.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through Saturday. Flight restrictions are possible at all terminals due to showers and low clouds associated with a passing front Sunday afternoon/evening into Monday.
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.MARINE...
Tonight: Weak south-southeasterly swell will linger across the waters with northwesterly winds at 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt through the evening. Thereafter, expect a low-lvl wind surge to push across the waters as the base of the upper-lvl trough swings by overhead. Model guidance continues to indicate that the strongest winds will be located across the Georgia waters with speeds reaching 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25-27 kt. Hence, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been issued for the nearshore and outer Georgia waters (AMZ354 and AMZ374). It's important to note that while the Edisto Beach-Savannah nearshore zone do not have SCA, it will be fairly breezy overnight with frequent gusts of 22-23 kt. Seas will range from 2 to 4 ft across the nearshore waters and 4 to 5 ft across the outer Georgia waters.
Friday through Monday: High pressure will dominate the weather pattern to start off the weekend with a weaker pressure gradient arriving across local waters by mid-late morning Friday. A Small Craft Advisory across Georgia waters will likely come to an end as a result. High pressure is then expected to slide offshore with an inverted trough developing nearby late weekend, which could help maintain a slightly tighter pressure gradient across local waters and northeasterly winds in the 15-20 kt range. Seas should peak in the 2-4 ft range during this timeframe as well. Heading into early next week, the pressure gradient becomes noticeably weaker and warm air advection occurs well in advance of a cold front approaching from the west. This will likely keep winds/seas below Small Craft Advisory levels through early week, but there should be a 15-20 kt wind surge post fropa Sunday night into Monday prior to a low pressure system arriving. Seas should also slowly build up to 2-4 ft once again with even a few 5 ft seas possible.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ354-374.
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NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM...DPB LONG TERM...DPB AVIATION...BSH/DPB MARINE...Dennis/DPB