FXUS62 KCHS 251838 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 238 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Temperatures warm to near-record values on Friday.
- 2) A dry cold front brings cooler temperatures this weekend, bringing a pattern change for this weekend and possible fire weather concerns.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures build to near-record warmth on Friday
Eroding surface high pressure moving off into the Atlantic from the northeast should result in skies becoming at least partly cloudy this afternoon, allowing for a rapid warm-up into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Vast majority of models support this, though the NAM based models would suggest the region remains stuck with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s...confidence is only moderate as a result. Can't rule out some patchy fog, especially for areas south of the I-16 corridor overnight, though it appears to be marginal at this time.
As a broad ridge axis builds/expands across Texas, the region falls under the eastern periphery of the upper level feature with geopotential heights remaining fairly steady. At the surface, a high pressure will be in the western Atlantic, with temperatures expected to rise each day as warm 850mb temperatures overspread the region. Afternoon highs in the lower to mid 70s are expected for Wednesday, upper 70s to mid 80s on Thursday, and near-record upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday, 5-10 degrees cooler along the coast. Precipitation chances look to remain slim given the synoptic scale descent aloft, though some weak showers can't be ruled out this afternoon for areas south of the I-16 corridor given weak isentropic lift aloft.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A dry cold front brings cooler temperatures this weekend, bringing a pattern change for this weekend and possible fire weather concerns.
A dry cold front is expected to move through late Friday night into Saturday, ushering in significantly cooler temperatures for the weekend. Afternoon highs behind the front on Saturday look to remain in the mid 60s across southeast South Carolina, rising to the mid 70s across portions of southeast Georgia. Gusty/breezy north- northeasterly winds are expected throughout the day behind the cold front sustained in the teens to lower 20s with gusts 30-35 mph, possibly raising the need for a Lake Wind Advisory on Lake Moultrie. In addition to the breezy winds, dewpoints will also be lowering into the 40s and then 30s. Given the dry antecedent conditions and ongoing drought, there is growing concern for elevated fire weather conditions on Saturday, with a lesser extent continuing on Sunday given the weaker winds though the dry conditions will continue.
Latest round of models continue to keep probabilities for overnight lows in the upper 30s to below 50% into Sunday morning, with areas along the coast remaining in the upper 40s to lower 50s. High temperatures remain a few degrees below normal on Sunday in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with the thermostat set to rise again into the beginning of next week.
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.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z TAFs: Scattered MVFR cigs should improve to VFR this afternoon, though partly to mostly cloudy skies expected for the rest of the day. Breezy northeasterly winds will be decreasing this afternoon/evening as they briefly turn southeasterly, becoming weak overnight predominantly out of the northeast. Patchy fog can't be ruled out overnight, especially for areas south of the I-16 corridor, and it will likely be very shallow in nature. Winds remain light tomorrow, becoming southwesterly Thursday afternoon.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. Expect gusty winds behind a dry cold front on Saturday.
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.MARINE...
The pinched surface pressure gradient continues to create breezy northeasterly winds, though the cold air wedge will be weakening throughout he day, allowing for winds to weaken and seas to calm, bringing an end to the Small Craft Advisories at various times based on zone. Winds will remain out of the north-northeast into Thursday, becoming east-southeasterly throughout the afternoon hours.
Extended Marine: A dry cold front is expected to move through Friday night into Saturday, bringing near gale to possibly gale conditions to all of our coastal waters early Saturday morning into Sunday. Waves along the coast may peak in the 5-6 foot range, rising into the 8-10 foot range near the 20NM mark, with waters near the 60 NM marker near 12 feet.
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.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
March 27: KCHS: 87/2021 KCXM: 81/2021 KSAV: 89/2021
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ352.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ354. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ374.
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