FXUS62 KCHS 241201 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 701 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes made to Key Message 1 to update ongoing temperatures. The Aviation Section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance. The Marine Section has been updated to remove Small Craft Advisories this morning.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Cold weather with sub-freezing temperatures early this
morning.
- 2) A passing front will result in widespread rainfall from
late Thursday into Friday.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Cold weather with sub-freezing temperatures early this morning.
Modified arctic high pressure centered near the lower Mississippi River Valley will continue to shift south to the north-central Gulf Coast, placing some enhancement to the pressure gradient across Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia around daybreak. The trend supports temps in the mid-upper 20s inland (lower 30s for coastal areas) with wind chills in the 20-25 degree range early this morning, lowest inland.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A passing front will result in widespread rainfall from late Thursday into Friday.
Aloft, expect broad mid-lvl troughing to develop across the mid- South on Thursday, and then track towards the Eastern Seaboard overnight into Friday. At the surface, a surface low will track northeastward across the mid-South on Thursday with an associated cold front. Expect moisture lvls to return to the region on Thursday ahead of the approaching front. It's fairly high model agreement that scattered showers should develop in the far inland counties on Thursday morning and remain in that general area through the evening, before overspreading into the rest of the region on Thursday night into Friday morning. There remains a bit of uncertainty of how quickly the rainfall should clear off the coastline as this timeframe ranges from Friday night into Saturday morning. Some instability could be present ahead of the front on Friday, therefore the mention of thunderstorms has been noted in the forecast. It's still too early in the forecast to discuss rainfall amounts, however flooding rains does not seem to jump out at the moment (esp. with the ongoing drought). High temperatures will be a few degrees above normal throughout this period.
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.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 12Z Wednesday.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions likely to persist through at least Thursday. A front should bring flight restrictions late Thursday night into Friday. Occasional flight restrictions could persist into Saturday.
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.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: High pressure centered west of the region will continue to shift south across the Gulf, then gradually slide east across the Atlantic this afternoon into tonight, favoring winds and seas that remain below Small Craft Advisory levels across all local waters. There are some hints of the pressure gradient intensifying late night as troughing passes to the north, which could support southwest winds gusting up to 20-25 kt within a few hours of daybreak while seas build up to 3-5 ft. Small Craft Advisories could eventually be needed across a portion of local waters heading into daybreak Wednesday.
Wednesday: Southwesterly winds will likely approach Small Craft Advisory lvls across the South Carolina nearshore waters and the offshore Georgia waters on Wednesday in response to a re-tightening of the pressure gradient. Also, with some south-southwesterly swell building into the waters, there is a possibility of some 6 footers reaching into the nearshore Charleston waters and offshore Georgia waters on Wednesday as well.
Thursday and Friday: An approaching cold front from the west on Thursday will yield elevated winds and seas across most of the local waters and conditions will likely warrant the need for Small Craft Advisories on Thursday into Friday. South-southwesterly swell should build into the local waters again on Thursday morn. and seas will range from 4 to 6 ft through early Friday morning. Expect the front shifts offshore by Friday night and marine conditions subside.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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Dennis/DPB