FXUS62 KCHS 062344 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 644 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation section has been updated for the 00z TAF issuance.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Areas to widespread fog anticipated across the majority of
southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia tonight into Saturday morning.
- 2) Unseasonably warm temperatures continue into the middle of
next week, prior to a cold front arriving Thursday.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Areas to widespread fog anticipated across the majority of southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia tonight into Saturday morning.
As we head into the evening hours, conditions are quite similar to last night. Satellite imagery and coastal web cams indicate that there is some patchy and very shallow fog being advected into the lower SC and southeast GA coast this evening. The Tybee Island web cam shows a fog layer about 50 ft deep from the surface. So, there is patchy fog out there and we should see it expand later this evening and overnight. With prevailing near surface flow out of the south, any fog that develops across the nearshore coastal waters will advect inland. Fog will likely persist through 8-10 am and Dense Fog Advisories could eventually be needed.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Unseasonably warm temperatures continue into the middle of next week, prior to a cold front arriving Thursday.
Deep-layered high pressure extending across the western Atlantic will prevail across the Southeast United States this weekend into the middle of next week, favoring a warm southerly flow under ample sunshine each day ahead of a stalling/dissipating front upstream Monday, then ahead of a more substantial cold front arriving to the local area during the second half of the week. The bulk of guidance continues to display 1000-850mb thicknesses supportive of afternoon high temps in the mid-upper 70s (coastal areas) to low-mid 80s (inland) this weekend and early next week, although scattered showers and/or an isolated thunderstorm could limit maximum heating. Greater warmth is possible heading into the middle of next week as mid-lvl ridging expands/strengthens across the Southeast United States in advance of a sfc cold front arriving Thursday. Latest guidance is suggestive of afternoon high temps in the mid-upper 80s (inland) Tuesday and Wednesday with mild overnight lows as well, generally in the lower 60s. These temperatures could come within a few degrees of records, particularly at Savannah, GA (KSAV). Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase with fropa on Thursday, limiting highs to the upper 70s/lower 80s, followed by noticeably cooler overnight lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s Thursday night.
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.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The 00z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. Very similar to last night, the primary forecast issue will be fog and low stratus. The setup is quite similar and we expect to see widespread IFR conditions beginning around 07-09z and continuing through 13-14z. Once any fog and stratus mixes out by mid morning, VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the 00z TAF period.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals due to fog and/or low stratus during late night/early morning hours during the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms return Sunday and Monday, which could produce TEMPO flight restrictions at all terminals during afternoon/evening hours.
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.MARINE...
Tonight: Visible satellite indicated sea fog along the coast, especially near the mouth of the Savannah River. Guidance indicates that sea fog will expand this evening, give sfc dewpoints in the 60s over waters in the 50s. The marine Dense Fog Advisory continues for the nearshore waters south of the Edisto River through 10 am Saturday. This Dense Fog Advisory could need to be expanded to other portions of the local waters later this evening or tonight. Otherwise, high pressure will provide the region with light winds and 3-4 ft seas.
Saturday through Tuesday: High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature across local waters this weekend, favoring a south/southeast wind in the 10-15 kt range and seas generally between 2-4 ft, well below Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Sfc winds could tip more south/southwest heading into early next week, but will continue to remain well below Small Craft Advisory levels between Atlantic high pressure and a stalling/dissipating front well inland.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ352-354.
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BSH