FXUS62 KCHS 311822 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 222 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Warm temperatures with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible during the latter half of the week.
- 2) A cold front could bring increased rain chances late this
weekend into early next week.
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.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Warm temperatures with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible during the latter half of the week.
Aloft, ridging will prevail across the Southeast through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. At the surface, the forecast area will remain positioned under the western extent of the subtropical high situated over the Atlantic. Overall, this should support well above normal temperatures and little to no diurnal convection. Late in the week, the environment could become a bit less hostile to diurnal convection, but model soundings still have warm profiles and plenty of mid-level dry air. The best chance of any diurnal convection will be across the far inland portion of the forecast area, and rain chances are no more than 20-30 percent.
Key Message 2: A cold front could bring increased rain chances late this weekend into early next week.
Aloft, the persistent ridge will break down as a trough approaches from the west on Sunday. This is expected to push a cold front through the area Sunday into Monday. The increase in forcing should result in considerably better rain chances, though it still does not look like a widespread significant rain event. There are indications that the front will hang up offshore early next week, at least bringing in some cooler temperatures. Depending on the proximity of the front to the coast, a low could develop along the front and potentially spread some precipitation back into portions of the area. Confidence in this scenario isn't particularly high.
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.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 18z Wednesday. We could again see some shallow ground fog around the terminals around sunrise, but no significant visibility reductions are expected. Any fog that does develop should dissipate quickly Wednesday morning.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions are expected into the weekend. There is a better chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the weekend as a front moves into the area, which could bring increasing chances for brief periods of flight restrictions.
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.MARINE...
Overall, quiet conditions are expected across the local waters into the weekend. Modest onshore flow, with wind speeds mostly no higher than 10-15 knots, is expected into the weekend. Late in the weekend, a cold front is expected to move through. The biggest impact would likely come behind the front when a significant surge of northeast flow is possible. Model guidance indicates some potential for 5-6 ft seas in the outer GA waters beginning Thursday night. Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds through the weekend.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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