FXUS62 KCHS 040901 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 401 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section was changed for the 12z TAFs.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Some much needed rain will fall across the area today
through early Thursday as a cold front pushes through.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Some much needed rain will fall across the area today through early Thursday as a cold front pushes through.
A cold front stretching from south Texas into the Mid-Atlantic states early this morning will push east today. A frontal wave is forecast to develop across South Carolina later this afternoon as a sharp upper trough interacts with the approaching front. The combination of modest UVVs induced by DCVA ahead of the trough coupled with increasing deep-layered moisture will support a fairly widespread band of rain along/ahead of the front. Activity should reach the far western areas prior to daybreak then slowly spread east across the remainder of the South Carolina Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia through the day into the evening hours. The surface low is progged to exit offshore overnight, passing south of Cape Hatteras early Thursday as the trailing cold front clears the coast. Categorical pops of 80-100% still look reasonable and were maintained. Light to moderate rainfall rates with occur with a general QPF of 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch.
Despite the front pushing offshore early Thursday, the risk for at least isolated shower activity will linger into Thursday afternoon until the upper trough axis pivots offshore and broad subsidence settles in with its departure. There are some low probabilities for sub-freezing temperatures to occur over northern portions of Berkeley County (Saint Stephen to Jamestown) from daybreak through the mid-morning hours. Should these occur, there would be a conditional risk for some very light freezing rain or patchy freezing drizzle given the lack of cloud ice nucleation per forecast soundings at KMKS and KCKI. While the forecast will not reflect temperatures quite that cold, there is about 5-10% chance for temperatures to drop below freezing. This scenario is certainly an outlier, but worth monitoring in case guidance trends colder and/or a bit wetter.
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.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
04/12z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR this morning will give way to MVFR cigs this afternoon as a cold front draws closer and widespread rains spread east. The steadier rains should reach the terminals by mid-afternoon although some light shower activity could be nearby by mid-morning. The risk for IFR conditions (combination of low cigs and rain) will increase by late afternoon and persist into the overnight hours. The cold front should pass the terminals just before 12z Thursday.
Extended Aviation Outlook: IFR cigs could linger into Thursday morning. Otherwise, there are no high confidence concerns.
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.MARINE...
Expect southwest winds ahead of a cold front today. The cold front will move through the coastal waters this evening, then shift offshore tonight, which will cause winds to clock around to the northwest and increase. There will be a surge of winds on Thursday as High pressure briefly builds into the region. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for the GA waters beyond 20 nm Thursday and Thursday night. Following a brief lull Friday morning, conditions deteriorate later Friday, with another cold front moving through on Saturday. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for all of the ocean zones late Friday into early Saturday. Conditions improve later Saturday as High pressure builds into the region, then prevails through early next week.
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.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar is operational, but could go down at any time. Additional repairs are planned for Wednesday or Thursday.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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