FXUS62 KCHS 241123 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 623 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through the holiday week. A cold front will move through the area Sunday night or early Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The mid-levels will consist of northwest flow overhead. At the surface, High pressure will prevail over the Southeast. A dry cold front will approach from the north today, stall just north of our area this evening, then lift back northeast as a warm front overnight. Dry conditions will prevail. Though, clouds should gradually increase this evening and overnight. Temperatures will be well above normal. Highs will peak in the mid to upper 70s, except cooler at the beaches. Lows will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Warm and dry conditions are expected Christmas through late week/Saturday. High pressure will remain to the south through the period, while a weak front drops south into or towards the area early Friday. The front appears to stall nearby before lifting back north later Friday. Main impact with the front will be some increased cloud cover and potentially "cooler" temperatures over northern zones depending where the front ends up. Otherwise, on the whole, temperatures will remain above normal, especially on Thursday and Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 70s away from the coast. These values are shy of records, but still 10-15 above late December normals. Lows will average in the low to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mid level trough will drop into the Great Lakes region Sunday before passing into the Northeast on Monday. This will send a stronger cold front through the local area, passing offshore likely Monday morning. Rain threat looks minimal with the front, with NBM and ensemble probs showing only a 15-20% chance for >0.01" in 24 hours and less than 5% for >0.10". A noticeable cool down is expected following fropa, with potential for sub- freezing temps to return both Monday and Tuesday nights.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TAFs: VFR.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. Chance for flight restrictions in low clouds Friday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: High pressure will prevail over the Southeast. A dry cold front will approach from the north today, stall just north of our area this evening, then lift back northeast as a warm front overnight. Expect tranquil marine conditions with seas gradually subsiding.
Thursday through Monday: No highlights are expected through Sunday. Winds will average less than 15 knots with seas 2-4 feet. The main time period of concern is Sunday night into Monday as a strong cold front passes through the waters. Winds and seas could reach Small Craft Advisory criteria over portions of the waters.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...ETM LONG TERM...ETM AVIATION...ETM MARINE...ETM