FXUS62 KCHS 150611 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 211 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation Section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dry weather and above-normal temperatures will continue
through the weekend.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather and above-normal temperatures will continue through the weekend.
Prominent ridging aloft and subtropical high pressure at the surface will continue to support dry weather and above-normal temperatures through the weekend. Temperatures will range into the upper 80s to low 90s this afternoon and through the weekend. These values would be on the order of 10 degrees (or more) above normal. High temperatures could approach the daily records today, with the best chances of reaching records on Friday and Saturday (see Climate section below). The beaches will feel considerably cooler (possibly 10 to 15 degrees cooler) with onshore flow and water temperatures remaining in the mid-60s. The combination of well above normal temperatures and no rainfall will only serve to further worsen ongoing Extreme (D3) drought conditions highlighted by the U.S. Drought Monitor.
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.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
15/06z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR for much of the 06z TAF period. Some shallow ground fog could develop just before daybreak similar to the past several mornings. No meaningful impacts are expected, although a brief period of MVFR vsbys could occur.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.
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.MARINE...
Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore will maintain a southerly flow regime into Saturday. This pattern favors robust sea breeze surges each afternoon with the highest winds remaining confined to areas near the land/sea interface as well as the Charleston Harbor during the mid-afternoon to early evening hours. Gusts in these areas could reach as high as 20 kt at times.
A strong cold front is expected to push across the coastal waters Sunday which will bring a dramatic increase in both winds and seas, likely reaching as high as 25-30 kt with gusts near gale force. Small Craft Advisories will most certainly be needed with Gale Watches/Warnings possible, especially over the 20-60 NM offshore zones.
Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents is in place for all beaches through Thursday. The combination of 2-3 ft swell with a period of ~10 seconds, moderate onshore winds and an increasing astronomical influence from an approaching full moon will be enough to support a higher rip current risk. An elevated risk for rip currents will likely persist into the weekend and especially into early next week as a pinched gradient, northeast wind event develops behind a strong cold front.
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.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
April 16: KSAV: 92/1967
April 17: KCHS: 91/1967 KCXM: 86/2006 KSAV: 95/1967
April 18: KCHS: 92/1967 KSAV: 93/1967
April 19: KSAV: 92/1968
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
April 19: KCHS: 66/1975 KSAV: 69/1880
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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Dennis