FXUS62 KCHS 071748 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1248 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains overhead through the end of the week, allowing dry conditions and above normal temperatures to prevail. A cold front then pushes across the region this weekend, causing rain chances and notably cooler temperatures to return.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A stubborn stratus deck has lingered this morning, with sunshine struggling to break through across most of the forecast area. This has resulted in temperatures not warming quite as quickly as anticipated. Most locations have reached into the upper 60s to low 70s and once the sunshine does break through highs are expected to continue to warm into the low to mid 70s.
Zonal flow aloft will dominate this afternoon, gradually shifting to broad ridging through the overnight. Surface high pressure will hold strong across the region this afternoon with a weak backdoor cold front moving across the region tonight. Overall the impacts from the backdoor cold front will be minimal, with no rain chances and light to calm winds, the chance of fog formation tonight has increased. All model guidance is showing reductions in visibilities from early Thursday morning into the first few hours of daylight. In addition to the probabilities of visibility reductions, models show condensation pressure deficits in the single digits across almost the entire forecast area. Fog has been added to the forecast and conditions will need to be monitored for a potential Dense Fog Advisory.
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.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Quasi-zonal flow aloft persist Thursday with some modest ridging building overhead by Friday. Meanwhile, at the sfc, expect sfc high pressure to linger, with a warm front progged to lift across the region Friday. This will allow dry conditions and above normal temperatures to prevail, despite there being an increase in cloud cover. Currently have highs forecast to rise into the mid to upper 70s, with perhaps a few locations across southeast Georgia reaching the lower 80s. More on record high possibilities in the Climate section below. Do want to point out, however, that temperatures along the coast will be a bit cooler, as highs only rise into the mid to upper 60s.
Upper level pattern begins to shift Saturday as a trough deepens across the central CONUS. This, along with its attendant sfc cold front are progged to gradually push eastward throughout the day, causing rain chances to return to the forecast - more on this below. Otherwise, look for another round of unseasonably warm (perhaps record breaking) temperatures to continue.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As noted above, expect rain chances to return Saturday evening ahead of FROPA, with the highest probabilities (30-50%) occurring after sunset. Overall rainfall amounts look fairly meager given the lack of moisture in place. Rather, expect breezy winds to be the more notable impact, with gusts up to 25 mph possible Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will also take a notable dive, as a cooler, drier airmass settles in behind the front. Currently have highs in the 60s Sunday dropping into the lower 50s by Monday. Temperatures then begin to slowly moderate again as we head into mid week, though still staying below seasonal norms. Otherwise, should see dry conditions prevail for the remainder of the extended period.
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.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A lingering low stratus deck will continue to impact all terminals through the first few hours of the 18Z TAF period, with MVFR conditions at KCHS/KSAV. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR by around 20Z, and remain VFR at all three terminals through at least midnight. Tonight the chance of low stratus/fog returns, with higher confidence in fog formation than previous nights. MVFR cigs/vsbys have been included in the 18Z TAFs at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV beginning around 09Z and lasting through around 15Z. IFR and even LIFR conditions are possible, however confidence in occurrence was too low to include mention in the 18Z TAFs.
Extended Aviation Forecast: An approaching cold front could bring increased probabilities for flight restrictions on Saturday night as scattered showers track through the region.
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.MARINE...
Today through tonight: West- southwest to southwest flow will prevail across the local waters today with speeds around 10 knots through the remainder of the afternoon. Overnight, winds will be light, 5-10 knots early in the evening becoming 5 knots or less late. These light wind speeds and a direction parallel to the coastline, sea fog could potentially become an issue tonight. Models are hinting at its formation, as well as local tools. However, confidence is too low to include explicit mention in the forecast at this time. Seas are expected to be 2-3 feet today, dropping off to 2 feet overnight.
Thursday through Monday: Light northeasterly winds look to continue Thursday and Friday as high pressure settles overhead. While tranquil marine conditions are expected, do want to note that sea fog may be possible Thursday morning. Otherwise, look for south- southwesterly winds to become a bit breezy Saturday ahead of an advancing cold front. Winds become even breezier behind the front Sunday into Monday, with gusts up to 35 mph possible. Seas between 4 to 6 ft will also be possible during this time. Thus, a few SCA's may be needed - especially across the nearshore South Carolina waters, and nearshore/offshore Georgia waters.
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.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures: January 9: KCHS: 78/2012 KCXM: 76/1974 KSAV: 77/2008
January 10: KCHS: 79/2008 KSAV: 81/1972
Record High Minimum Temperatures: January 9: KCHS: 58/1946
January 10: KCHS: 60/1974 KCXM: 62/1974 KSAV: 63/1937
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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NEAR TERM...CPM SHORT TERM...SST LONG TERM...SST AVIATION...CPM/SST MARINE...CPM/SST