FXUS62 KCHS 202344 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 744 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation Section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Quiet weather and warming temperatures through the
weekend.
- 2) A strong backdoor cold front will yield breezy winds and
cooler conditions mid-week.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Quiet weather and warming temperatures through the weekend.
High pressure will dominate at the surface over the southeastern states through the weekend. While the upper levels will generally feature southwesterly to zonal flow during this time period, a weak shortwave aloft is expected to ripple across the southeastern states Saturday afternoon. CAMs are in agreement that this could trigger some showers, mainly across the SC Midlands. The current forecast for the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia remains dry, however a stray weak shower could impact far inland Colleton/Dorchester/Berkeley counties tomorrow evening. High temperatures will be roughly 10 degrees above normal through the weekend, with highs reaching into the 80s.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A strong backdoor cold front will yield breezy winds and cooler conditions mid-week.
A strong backdoor cold front will push through the region late on Monday/early Tuesday morning. In the wake of the front breezy conditions will develop, especially along the coastal counties. The NBM shows probabilities of wind gusts >25 mph along the coastal counties around 50% on Tuesday afternoon. While temperatures will be much lower than the previous few days, highs will generally be around normal for this time of year in the upper 60s to low 70s. Significant rainfall with this backdoor cold front is not expected, with PoPs topping out only around 30% Tuesday night. A return to above normal temperatures arrives Thursday as high pressure builds into the region again.
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.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00Z Sunday.
Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no high confidence concerns.
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.MARINE...
Tonight through Tuesday: Conditions across the local waters are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds through the weekend. Southwest flow will build a bit beginning early Saturday morning and continue into Monday. There will likely be periods of time with speeds getting into the 15-20 knot range. The biggest impact for the waters will come Monday night and into Tuesday in the wake of a backdoor cold front. The arrival of some cooler air behind the front and a pinching of the gradient will yield a notable northeasterly surge. Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions appear likely for all of the waters, with frequent gusts up to around 30 knots. There is even some support for a period of gusts possibly up to around gale force, meaning that Gale Watches and Warnings could eventually be needed.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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CPM/DPB