FXUS62 KCHS 231108 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 608 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push south through the area this morning. High pressure will prevail through early next week. Another cold front is expected to impact the area mid week. High pressure and dry weather is expected for Thanksgiving.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A backdoor cold front moving south out of North Carolina early this morning will approach the I-16 corridor around daybreak and should clear the Altamaha River by mid-morning as supporting shortwave energy exits off the Virginia coast. A band of low stratus and possibly even a little fog could accompany the front itself as it moves through southern South Carolina with the greatest chances of this occurring centered across the Charleston Tri-County County into coastal Colleton County. The risk for an isolated shower or two could also persist across parts of southern South Carolina until FROPA, but THE 22/01z NBM keeps conditions rain-free. Because no decision support services (DSS) activities are in progress, no changes were made to account for these chances. Any showers that occur will be fairly brief and should drop <0.10". Dry high pressure will build in through the day as the front clears the area. Highs will range from the lower-mid 70s across the South Carolina Lowcountry to the mid- upper 70s across Southeast Georgia.
High pressure will prevail tonight as ridging builds aloft. 22/01z NBM highlights lows from the mid-upper 40s inland to the upper 50s/near 60 at the beaches per 22/01z NBM. These lows could a bit too warm well inland where radiational cooling could become locally maximized late as boundary layer decoupling occurs. Users are reminded that the NBM has exhibiting a significant warm bias in radiational cooling regimes for much of the Fall season, so some places could end up cooler than what the official gridded forecasts shows.
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.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ridging aloft will dominate on Monday, with a shortwave rippling through the southwestern flow on Tuesday. Wednesday will see broad troughing develop aloft. High pressure will prevail at the surface on Monday, centered over the Mid-Atlantic states. The center of high pressure will shift off the east coast Tuesday with a cold front approaching the region Wednesday. The period will start off dry on Monday, with PoPs around 10-15% on Tuesday as a weak upper level disturbance passes over the southeastern states. Precipitation chances increase into Wednesday as a cold front approaches the region, with PoPs upwards of 40% Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures through the period will be several degrees above normal, with highs in the 70s, pushing 80 along the Altamaha River in GA. Overnight lows will similarly be above November normals, only dipping into the upper 40s to 50s.
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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Broad troughing will dominate aloft into the weekend. At the surface a cold front will push through the region Wednesday night, with high pressure building in behind it. Given the prevailing high pressure a quiet weather pattern is expected, with the main forecast highlight a return to normal to slightly below normal temperatures. Highs into the weekend will only reach into the 60s, with overnight lows in the 30s. A reminder that the local frost/freeze program has ended due to the widespread freeze earlier this month.
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.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
23/12z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI: An area of fog and stratus will spread south into both terminals as daybreak approaches. The 12z TAFs will initialize with IFR cigs with a mention of fog. Cigs could occasionally drop below alternate minimums for both KCHS and KJZI. The fog/stratus looks to be fairly shallow, so VFR should return by mid-morning as a cold front drops south of the area. VFR will then prevail through 24/12z.
KSAV: VFR will prevail through 24/12z. Any low cigs associated with a southward moving cold front should remain well to the north of the terminal.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.
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.MARINE...
Through Tonight: There are no concerns. West winds early this morning will shift to the north as a cold front drops south through the waters. The front should clear the far southern boundary by mid-morning. Northerly winds will persist into tonight as high pressure builds in from the north. Speeds will average 15 kt or less with seas 3 ft or less.
Monday through Wednesday: Conditions through the period are forecast to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. High pressure will dominate early next week, with a cold front pushing through the region mid-week. NE winds 10 to 15 knots Monday will shift to the SE Tuesday followed NW on Wednesday. Seas are forecast to average 2 to 3 ft with some 4 ft seas in the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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