FXUS62 KCHS 282326 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 626 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through the weekend. A storm system should bring some impacts to our area late Monday into Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle to end of next week.
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Early this evening: Another very quiet night across the forecast area. The surface high centered to the north will gradually shift to the east across the Appalachians. This will turn the low-level flow from northerly to more northeasterly by sunrise. We will also maintain enough gradient to support up to around 10 mph of northeast flow along the coast through the night and closer to 5 mph inland. This combined with a steady stream of cirrus aloft will prevent ideal radiational cooling conditions. However, we still anticipate a cold night with lows dipping into the upper 20s inland while staying in the upper 30s or even low 40s along the beaches.
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday and Sunday: Southwesterly mid-level flow will prevail, especially as a trough passes well to our north late Sunday. At the surface, High pressure will prevail through the weekend, shifting well offshore on Sunday. Weak troughing will be offshore on Sunday, followed by a cold front moving through Sunday night. The NBM keeps our area dry on Saturday, then has slight chance POPs just about everywhere late Sunday. No QPF is forecasted during this time period. High temperatures will be several degrees below normal on Saturday, then several degrees above normal on Sunday. Low temperatures will trend higher into Sunday night.
Monday: Southwesterly flow will prevail in the mid-levels. A cold front will be offshore in the morning while High pressure is to the northwest. The High will pass to the north during the day, with a storm systems developing over the Lower MS Valley late in the day. Even though moisture will trend higher, the NBM maintains slight chance POPs across portions of our area with no QPF. High temperatures will be several degrees below normal.
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A storm system will cross through our area on Tuesday. POPs quickly rise Monday night, peaking in the categorical range on Tuesday. It's still too early to determine exact rainfall amounts, but significant flooding rains are not in the forecast. High temperatures will be near normal on Tuesday. High pressure and drier conditions returns Tuesday night and last through Thursday. High temperatures will be below normal during this time period.
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.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00z Sunday.
Extended Aviation Outlook: There are low probabilities of flight restrictions Sunday and Monday. A storm system will bring higher probabilities of flight restrictions late Monday into Tuesday.
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.MARINE...
Tonight: High pressure centered across the Ohio River Valley will slide east across the Mid-Atlantic states, leading to a weaker pressure and diminishing northerly wind during the day. In general, wind speeds will range between 10-15 kt. Seas will also subside about a foot, generally to 1-3 ft across local waters, although a few 4 ft seas could linger on near 60 nm off the Georgia coast. Overnight, winds should slightly veer to north-northeast and gradually increase to 15-20 kt early morning, in response to the pressure gradient tightening across local waters. Seas should also build up to 2-4 ft prior to daybreak Saturday.
Extended Marine: High pressure will prevail through the weekend, bringing elevated winds and seas. But no marine headlines are expected. A storm system should bring some impacts to the coastal waters starting Monday and lasting into Tuesday. Winds and seas will increase, so Small Craft Advisories may be needed for portions of our waters on Tuesday. High pressure then returns on Wednesday, with conditions improving.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...BSH MARINE...