FXUS62 KCHS 061357 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 857 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The key messages and discussion sections have been updated to remove freezing fog potential this morning.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Hazardous conditions are expected on Lake Moultrie tonight
through Saturday morning.
- 2) Cold temperatures with low wind chills across coastal
South Carolina Sunday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Hazardous conditions are expected on Lake Moultrie tonight through Saturday morning.
Winds on Lake Moultrie are expected to increase overnight due to a combination of cold air advection strengthening behind a southward moving cold front and a tightening pressure gradient between developing low pressure well offshore of Cape Hatteras and 1034 hPa high pressure building south across the mid-upper Mississippi Valley. Winds should reach as high as 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt along with waves of 1-2 ft, highest over the central/eastern portions of the lake. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect from sunset through early Saturday afternoon. Boaters on Lake Moultrie should use extra caution since strong winds and rough waves can overturn small craft.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold temperatures with low wind chills across coastal South Carolina Sunday morning.
Unseasonably cold temperatures, around 10-15 degrees below early February normals, are expected this weekend as chilly high pressure builds into the region. The time period of greatest concern is Saturday night into Sunday morning when low temperatures are forecast to fall well into the 20s. There looks to be enough gradient wind present to bring a concern for wind chills dropping to the upper teens to around 20, especially across the Charleston Tri- county where LREF continues to highlight a 60-80% chance for seeing apparent T < 21 F. Probabilities are lower further south, but the potential is still there. A Cold Weather Advisory could be needed for portions of the area.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06/12z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: MVFR fog should lift shortly after daybreak at KCHS and KJZI. VFR will prevail through 07/12z.
Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no concerns.
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions will deteriorate across the waters tonight as the pressure gradient tightens between low pressure developing well offshore of Cape Hatters and high pressure building south out of the Mid-Upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, cold air advection will intensify as a cold front drops through the waters. Winds should reach 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt nearshore waters where Small Craft Advisories are in effect, including Charleston Harbor. The risk for gales has increased across mainly the central/eastern portions of the Georgia offshore waters tonight where Version 5 NBM probs for gusts >34 kt are running 50-80%. The HREF is even higher with 80-100% probabilities. Per coordination with WFO Jacksonville and the Ocean Prediction Center, a Gale Watch has been issued from this evening into Saturday morning. The watch will either be upgraded to a Gale Warning or a high-end Small Craft Advisory later today.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday
for SCZ045.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Saturday for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Sunday for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ352-354. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ374. Gale Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through Saturday morning for AMZ374.
&&
$$
ETM/ST