FXUS62 KCHS 042232 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 632 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation Section was updated for the 00z TAFs.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A cold front will bring increased rain chances Sunday
afternoon into Monday morning, followed by cooler temperatures.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front will bring increased rain chances Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, followed by cooler temperatures.
A broad mid-level trough accompanied by a cold front at the surface will move through the eastern United States Sunday and Sunday night. The cold front should be off the coast by late Sunday evening. Fairly robust moisture return ahead of the front will push PWs above 1.6" by Sunday afternoon. This, combined with moderate diabatic and adiabatic heating, will yield pockets of 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE. A band of fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to move through the area Sunday afternoon, then taper off from west to east Sunday evening. A few showers could linger along the coast until the early Monday morning hours. Mid-level lapse rates will be pretty weak (~5.5C) and 0-6 km bulk shear will only be 20-25 kt, so organized severe thunderstorms are not expected. However, a few pulse severe thunderstorms are possible, with damaging winds the main threat. Rainfall totals will be less than 0.50" in most areas.
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.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
05/00z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR for much of the period. Scattered to numerous showers/tstms are expected to impact the region Sunday with an approaching cold front. The risk for tstms impacts look greatest at KCHS and KJZI where some guidance suggests some interaction with the sea breeze and outflow from approaching frontal convection from the west could concentrate convection near both of those terminals late in the afternoon. VCTS was highlighted 21-00z for now to account for this possibility. No mention for TSRA was included at KSAV right now as activity that far to the south may be in a weakening phase as it approaches the Georgia coast.
Extended Aviation Outlook: There will be increased chances for flight restrictions associated with FROPA Sunday into early Monday.
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.MARINE...
Tonight: SE winds 5-10 kt this evening will veer around to the SSW by daybreak Sunday. Seas will average 3-4 ft.
Sunday through Thursday: A cold front will then approach from the west-northwest on Sunday, moving through the waters Sunday night with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Expect a surge in winds and seas behind the front early morning Monday, which will likely necessitate the need for Small Craft Advisories across most of our coastal waters throughout portions of the day. Surface high pressure builds to our north Tuesday and could persist into the later half of next week, leading to a period of breezy winds and hazardous seas.
Rip Currents: Sunday: The combination of gusty S to SW winds and a 3 ft SE swell near 8 seconds will result in a Moderate Risk of rip currents at all beaches.
Monday: The combination of gusty NE winds and a 3 ft SE swell near 9 seconds will result in a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the Georgia beaches.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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