FXUS62 KCHS 272247 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 547 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

The rain key message has been dropped now that rain has shifted offshore and a fog/low clouds key message has been introduced for tonight. The aviation (00z TAFs) and marine sections were updated as well.

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.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1) Areas of low clouds and fog likely tonight.

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.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Areas of low clouds and fog likely tonight.

27/22z surface analysis shows the cold front has cleared the lower South Carolina coast and will move off the Georgia coast shortly. Behind the front, widespread stratus is working south with ceilings dropping below 1 kft. Showers will continue to work offshore over the next hour or so. Once they do, dry conditions will prevail overnight. The risk for fog will steadily increase this evening and overnight as the low stratus builds down to the surface. Areas of fog have been introduced in the gridded and text forecasts to account for this. Guidance is not overly aggressive on dense fog chances with NBM probabilities for <1 mile only running about 10-25%, but vsbys in stratus build-down scenarios are always tricky. In addition to the introduction of fog, near term pops were updated to better reflect a drying trend this evening.

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.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

28/00z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Widespread LIFR cigs are likely for all terminals overnight as low clouds fill in behind a departing cold front. Areas of fog are likely from stratus build-down, yielding vsbys generally 2-4SM. Conditions will begin to improve by mid-morning Saturday with VFR returning to KCHS and KJZI by early afternoon and possibly KSAV by late afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are expected through Saturday afternoon, followed by VFR. The next chance of flight restrictions are late Sunday into Monday due to a passing cold front.

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.MARINE...

Areas of fog have been introduced to account for likely stratus build-down. Guidance is not overly aggressive in developing vsbys 1 NM or less over the waters this evening, but probabilities are highest over the South Carolina nearshore waters. Marine Dense Fog Advisories may be needed should vsbys 1 NM or less develop.

A cold front will move through the area into this evening, shifting offshore overnight. High pressure should prevail into the weekend. A dry cold front will bring elevated marine conditions early next week, followed by another area of High pressure. Surging of winds associated with this High will prompt Small Craft Advisories for the Atlantic waters Monday and Monday night.

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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.

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