AFD_CHS

FXUS62 KCHS 030545 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1245 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Key Message 3 was added. The Aviation section was updated to reflect the 06z TAFs.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1) Cold weather will occur this morning.

- 2) Rain chances will increase across drought stricken areas of

the South Carolina Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia Wednesday and Wednesday night as a cold front moves through the area.

- 3) Dry conditions and near seasonal temperatures are expected

across the South Carolina Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia Friday through early next week.

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Cold weather will occur this morning.

Clear skies and calm winds are supporting a strong radiational cooling regime early this morning. Temperatures at 03/05z were running in the upper 20s inland to the upper 30s/near 40 at the beaches. High clouds are poised to increase a bit prior to daybreak, which could have a slight impact on how low temperatures will get; however, another chilly morning will occur. As noted yesterday, the NBM (version 4.3) has a very warm bias in strong radiational regimes and the 02/01z run follows this trend. Its low temperature forecast is still running outside of the warmer side of the interquartile range (IQR). Lows were adjusted down from the 02/01z NBM based on a blend of the latest bias corrected temperatures guidance and observational trends. The Francis Marion National Forest and the northern portions of Dorchester and Berkeley Counties away from the Santee-Cooper lakes could see some spots briefly bottom out around 20 or just before daybreak. Given the limited duration and impacted area with temperatures at or below 20, a Cold Weather Advisory will not be issued. Trends will be monitored in case temperatures fall a bit more than expected; otherwise, lows will range from the lower-mid 20s inland to the mid-upper 30s at the beaches.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain chances will increase across drought stricken areas of the South Carolina Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia Wednesday and Wednesday night as a cold front moves through the area.

A strong cold front will push across the Southeast U.S. Wednesday as broad upper trough digs across the central CONUS. As a potent shortwave rounds the base of the broad upper tough, a frontal wave will likely develop over northern South Carolina- southern North Carolina Wednesday afternoon. This low is forecast to shift offshore of Cape Hatteras Wednesday night as the front clears the Southeast U.S. coast. Modest moisture advection off the Gulf characterized by a tongue of PWATs in excess of 1" is forecast to propagate into Southeast Georgia and far southern South Carolina ahead of the front. Increasing deep-layered moisture coupled with modest forcing aloft should support a rather large band of light to moderate showers along/ahead of the approaching cold front. This activity is poised to reach inland areas after daybreak Wednesday, spread east across the entire area during the day, and clearing the coast Wednesday evening. Some light showers rotating in along the backside of the exiting surface low may linger across southern South Carolina into the early morning hours Thursday. Categorical pops of 80-100% were highlighted with a QPF of 0.25-0.50". This will bring some much needed rainfall to drought stricken areas, but amounts will not be enough to significantly impact the D1 (moderate) to D3 (severe) drought conditions that are in place.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Dry conditions and near seasonal temperatures are expected across the South Carolina Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia Friday through early next week.

Mid-level flow overhead will generally be from the northwest through Sunday, with the models starting to diverge on Monday. Models hint that there could be several weak fronts approaching and trying to move through our area Friday through early next week. However, we emphasize they're weak and no precipitation is in the forecast. Overall, High pressure nearby will bring our area dry conditions. High temperatures Friday will be a few degrees below normal, rising to near normal through the weekend and early next week. Low temperatures during this time period should remain a few degrees below normal. Afternoon RH values inland could be lower than forecasted. However, winds don't appear to be strong enough to generate any fire weather concerns at this time.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

03/06z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 04/06z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: A cold front will bring flight restrictions Wednesday through Wednesday evening, mainly due to rain showers. VFR for Thursday on.

.MARINE...

Today through Wednesday Night: There no marine concerns today, but winds will increase Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Southwest winds could get close to Small Craft Advisory thresholds over the Georgia offshore waters Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night with the onset of cold air advection with the passage of the cold front. Right now, its appears the nearshore legs and Charleston Harbor should remain below advisory thresholds.

Thursday through Saturday: Several weak fronts should approach and try to move through our coastal waters. But High pressure nearby will be the primary synoptic feature most of this time period. Winds and seas could be high enough to prompt Small Craft Advisories for portions of our waters Thursday and Thursday night. Following a brief lull, there could be another round of Small Craft Advisories later Friday into Friday night for most of our waters.

.EQUIPMENT...

The KCLX radar is operational, but could go down at any time. Additional repairs are needed.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.