FXUS62 KCHS 161843 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 243 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Tornado Watch has expired.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A powerful cold front will sweep through southeast Georgia
and southeast South Carolina today, bringing a risk of severe thunderstorms, gusty winds outside of storms, and brief bursts of moderate to heavy rainfall.
- 2) Frost/freeze is possible tonight through Wednesday night.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A powerful cold front will sweep through southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina today, bringing a risk of severe thunderstorms, gusty winds outside of storms, and brief bursts of moderate to heavy rainfall.
Severe Thunderstorms: The risk for severe weather will continue to decrease through the rest of the afternoon as the main line of showers and thunderstorms moves offshore. The areas of concern remaining is the Charleston tri-county, Beaufort county, and the adjacent coastal waters. A strong/severe storm will still be possible in those locations, with gusty winds or/an isolated tornado the primary hazards.
Gusty winds: The strong wind field across the area will produce gusty winds outside of thunderstorms. Strong momentum and the onset of mixing should produce an environment suitable to increasing gusts beginning around sunrise and continuing until the front moves offshore. Gusts into the 30-35 mph range should be relatively common just about everywhere, with the best gust potential into portions of the Charleston area region. Gusts in excess of 40 mph will be possible, and a Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Charleston metro area. Also, a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Lake Moultrie.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost/freeze is possible tonight through Wednesday night.
Cold high pressure will spread over the area behind the cold front tonight. Temps will quickly drop this evening. A brief advection freeze is expected Tuesday morning, mainly across far interior GA/SC where temps could dip to 30-32F, where a Freeze Warning is in effect. We will need to monitor the potential for an expansion to Dorchester and Berkeley counties.
Tuesday night the high will be centered close to the area, allowing surface winds to decouple in the evening. Skies should be clearing out during the evening, so good radiational cooling will occur overnight. Temps are expected to dip into the upper 20s far inland with lower to middle 30s elsewhere. Even where temps don't hit freezing, frost formation seems pretty likely. We will likely need another round of Frost/Freeze headlines for Tuesday night.
Wednesday night could also feature some frost issues across the inland half of the area where temps dip to the low/mid 30s and skies remain mostly clear.
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.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Flight restrictions in showers and thunderstorms are likely for the first few hours of the TAF cycle, before coverage decreases late afternoon and into the early evening and VFR returns. Gusty winds will persist into the first half of the night behind the cold front, before subsiding early Tuesday morning.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to prevail.
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.MARINE...
Strong low-level wind fields will result in gusty winds over the waters today as a strong cold front approaches. 35 kt gusts are likely over the SC nearshore waters and Charleston Harbor where we maintained a Gale Warning. Small Craft Advisories exist elsewhere.
Winds will abruptly shift to WNW by early this evening after the cold front sweeps through. The gusty winds and elevated seas will subside by Tuesday morning.
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.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar is scheduled for radome panel replacement March 17-20, 2026. The radar will be down during this time. Users are encouraged to use data from the following nearby radar sites during the maintenance outage:
KCAE - Columbia, SC KLTX - Wilmington, NC KJAX - Jacksonville, FL KVAX - Moody AFB, GA KJGX - Robbins AFB, GA
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ087-088-
099-100-114-115.
SC...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for SCZ040-042-
043. Lake Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for SCZ045. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ050-052.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ330-350-352.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ354-374.
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ETM/JRL