FXUS62 KCHS 160207 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 907 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The marine discussion has been updated to remove the Small Craft Advisory across nearshore Georgia waters tonight. The aviation section has been updated to reflect minor TAF amendments this evening.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A low pressure system will move across the region tonight bringing
gusty showers and moderate rains.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A low pressure system will move across the region tonight bringing gusty showers and moderate rains.
A shortwave depicted on mid-level water vapor imagery will slowly progress eastward across Georgia and South Carolina this evening, eventually forcing a cold front through the local area during overnight hours. Latest radar trends show a large swath of showers and possibly a thunderstorm upstream entering inland portions of Southeast Georgia during the next hour, although in a weakening state as instability wanes early night. However, guidance indicates light to moderate showers shifting west to east across Southeast Georgia this evening, and eventually into portions of Southeast South Carolina approaching midnight, bringing total rainfall accumulations to the 0.5-1" range for the day/evening before the cold front sweeps through the area with dry high pressure in its wake. Although there remains a risk for a thunderstorm across the far Georgia interior early evening (Candler, Tattnall, Evans, Bulloch Counties), activity is anticipated to remain below strong thunderstorm thresholds, but could produce gusty winds in the 20-30 mph at times during the next few hours. There is also a risk for patchy fog to develop across inland Georgia and South Carolina prior to cold fropa overnight, but the concern remains too low to include in the latest forecast update.
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.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rainfree conditions are expected at all terminals for the next couple hours before a cold front approaches late evening and overnight tonight. As this feature approaches, cigs are expected to lower to IFR at all TAF sites, starting around 04Z tonight. Shower activity entering Southeast Georgia and low cigs developing across Southeast South Carolina could lead to TEMPO MVFR conditions prior to IFR cigs, mainly between the 02-04Z time range at all sites this evening. Once IFR cigs are met, expect these conditions to continue through the night before gradually improving to MVFR by around 14Z Monday. Gusty north- northeast winds return around 14Z at all terminals then slowly weaken during the afternoon, generally peaking in the 18-22 kt range late morning (strongest at CHS/JZI). Conditions should then improve to VFR at all terminals by around 18-19Z Monday as dry high pressure builds across the region.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions could linger into Monday afternoon before becoming SKC Monday night.
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.MARINE...
Gusty southerly winds expected through this evening ahead of a strong cold front. Seas will also steadily build through early this evening, with some 6-7 footers reaching the outer periphery of the South Carolina 0-20 nm waters for a few hours. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all nearshore South Carolina waters outside the Charleston Harbor, although there could be a brief surge of winds to near Small Craft Advisory levels across the harbor following cold fropa late tonight.
Winds will quickly shift to the west-northwest after midnight behind the cold front. Wind speeds should drop off for a few hours with light rain/shower activity after midnight, then start gusting again Monday morning. Small Craft Advisories continue through much of the day Monday for the South Carolina nearshore and Georgia offshore waters due to frequent 25 kt wind gusts.
High pressure will build over the area Monday night through Friday, with conditions below advisory thresholds.
Sea fog could be a concern mid to late week as southerly flow brings increasing temperatures and dewpoints.
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.CLIMATE...
Record Precipitation:
February 15: KCHS: 0.87/1952 KSAV: 0.91/1894
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Monday for AMZ350-374.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for AMZ352.
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CPM/DPB/JRL