FXUS62 KCHS 241829 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 229 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Areas across the South Carolina Lowcountry and southeast Georgia
will see gusty northeast winds with relative humidity values around 30 percent today.
- 2) Temperatures build to near-record warmth on Friday.
- 3) A dry cold front brings cooler temperatures this weekend.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Areas across the South Carolina Lowcountry and southeast Georgia will see gusty northeast winds with relative humidity values around 30 percent today.
A backdoor cold front has pushed south of the area and the 4 mb pressure gradient will continue to gradually decrease this evening. This pattern will support gusts of 20 to 25 mph through the afternoon before subsiding around sunset. The northeast winds and mixing in excess of 3 kft should allow dewpoints to remain around 30 degrees through the afternoon. As temperatures warm into the low 60s, some inland locations could see relative humidity values fall to around 30 percent. Weather conditions are marginal for a Fire Danger Statement across our inland counties today. However, we will headline the low relative humidity and gusty winds in the FWF.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Temperatures build to near-record warmth on Friday.
As a broad ridge axis builds/expands across Texas, the region falls under the eastern periphery of the upper level feature with geopotential heights remaining fairly steady. At the surface, a high pressure will be in the western Atlantic, with temperatures expected to rise each day as warm 850mb temperatures overspread the region. Afternoon highs in the lower to mid 70s are expected for Wednesday, upper 70s to mid 80s on Thursday, and near-record upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday, 5-10 degrees cooler along the coast. Precipitation chances look to remain slim given the synoptic scale descent aloft.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A dry cold front brings cooler temperatures this weekend
A dry cold front is expected to move through late Friday night into Saturday, ushering in significantly cooler temperatures. Afternoon highs behind the front on Saturday look to remain in the mid 60s across southeast South Carolina, rising to the mid 70s across portions of southeast Georgia. Latest round of models have probabilities for lows in the upper 30s for the northern interior counties remains below 40%, including Berkeley, Dorchester, and Colleton. High temperatures remain a few degrees below normal on Sunday in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with the thermostat set to rise again into the beginning of next week.
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.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV through 18Z Wednesday. Gusty conditions are expected to subside after sunset with northeast winds remaining between 5 to 10 kt through the rest of the TAF period.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. Expect gusty winds behind a dry cold front on Saturday.
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.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: The pressure gradient is forecast to remain between 4-5 mb into this evening. Winds across the Atlantic waters, outside the Charleston Harbor, are forecast to yield gale gusts through the daylight hours. The Gale Warning will remain in effect for the nearshore waters until 11 PM this evening. The Small Craft Advisory for the Charleston Harbor, with NE gusts up to 25 kt, until 8 PM. In addition, wave heights are forecast to peak this evening, ranging from 6-9 ft within 20 NM and 9-12 ft between 20-60 NM.
Gusts will gradually decrease through the evening and overnight, dropping below 25 kt by sunrise Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories (SCAs) will replace the Gale Warnings by tonight primarily to highlight elevated seas of 6 ft and higher.
Extended Marine: High pressure building into the region will cause winds and waves to trend lower tomorrow, though, elevated waves will persist over the GA waters beyond 20 nm into Wednesday night. A dry cold front is expected to move through Friday night into Saturday, bringing near gale to possibly gale conditions to all of our coastal waters early Saturday morning into Sunday. Waves along the coast may peak in the 5-6 foot range, rising into the 8-10 foot range near the 20NM mark, with waters near the 60 NM marker near 12 feet.
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.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
March 27: KCHS: 87/2021 KCXM: 81/2021 KSAV: 89/2021
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ330.
Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ350-352-354- 374.
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APT/BRS