FXUS62 KCHS 062356 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 656 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail across the region most of this week, bringing dry conditions and above normal temperatures. A cold front may bring showers and colder temperatures to our area this weekend.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Winds are forecast to remain slightly elevated through the overnight period, remaining around 5mph. However, model guidance is pretty consistent in showing the formation of fog/low stratus across portions of the forecast area, mainly in SE GA. Fog has been added to the forecast in the early morning hours through the first few hours of daylight on Tuesday. There is the potential for the patchy fog to be dense at times. Overnight lows will be rather mild again, only dropping into the mid to upper 50s.
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.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures will prevail Wednesday through Friday. A quasi-zonal mid-level flow will transition toward an East Coast ridge toward late week while surface high pressure moves east. High temps all three days will be in the 70s, though Friday continues to look the warmest as the surface high moves offshore and the southerly warm advection regime strengthens.
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.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will move into the area late Saturday afternoon and off the coast by late Saturday night. A few showers may accompany the front but a relative lack of moisture and forcing should limit overall precipitation accumulations. A cooldown is expected early next week with temperatures a few degrees below normal.
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.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0Z TAFs: VFR conditions expected across the terminals through late tonight. MOS and forecast soundings indicate a period of at least MVFR ceiling at KCHS and KJZI around daybreak, highlighted with TEMPOs. KSAV should see slightly weaker winds, possibly yielding a period of ground fog between 9-13Z. On Wednesday, conditions should feature steady SW winds and VFR cloud cover.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Nighttime ceiling restrictions possible especially at KSAV Wednesday through Saturday. Brief flight restrictions possible at all terminals Saturday night as scattered showers move through.
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.MARINE...
Rest of This Afternoon through tonight: A tightening southwesterly gradient will develop through the remainder of this afternoon across the marine waters, yielding increased wind speeds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Small Craft Conditions are not anticipated, however the Charleston County waters and the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters could see a gust or two to 25 knots. Seas are expected to average 2-3 feet through the period, but could get up to 4 feet in the Charleston County waters and the outer GA waters overnight.
Wednesday through Saturday: Winds/seas will remain well below advisory criteria Wednesday through Saturday. However, with forecast dewpoints in the lower 60s and water temps in the mid 50s, conditions are somewhat favorable for sea fog development, particularly at night if land-based fog moves offshore.
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.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
January 7: KSAV: 79/1991
January 9: KCHS: 78/2012 KCXM: 76/1974 KSAV: 77/2008
January 10: KCHS: 79/2008 KSAV: 81/1972
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
January 9: KCHS: 58/1946
January 10: KCHS: 60/1974 KCXM: 62/1974
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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NEAR TERM...CPM SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...NED MARINE...CPM/JRL