FXUS62 KCHS 191157 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 657 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance. Patchy black ice remains possible into early daylight hours today. Cold temperatures are likely Tuesday and Wednesday morning.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Patchy black ice is possible tonight into early daylight
hours this morning.
- 2) Cold temperatures in the low to mid 20s (upper 20s to lower
30s along the coast) possible Tuesday and Wednesday morning.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Patchy black ice is possible into early daylight hours this morning.
Dry high pressure will settle into the region, setting up colder conditions with sfc temps below the freezing mark early this morning. Although a light west-northwest wind will help dry out locations through the night, some roadways could remain partially wet, posing a black ice issue during the next couple hours across much of Southeast South Carolina away from the immediate coast. A Special Weather Statement has been issued until 9 AM to address remaining patchy black ice concerns on paved surfaces, such as bridges and overpasses, primary and secondary roads, parking lots, sidewalks and driveways.
Locations across Southeast Georgia saw rainfall end earlier and have experienced sufficient drying to limit black ice concerns. Winds are also light across inland areas while high pressure builds in from the west, limiting wind chill temps to the lower 20s, just above Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold temperatures in the low to mid 20s (upper 20s to lower 30s along the coast) possible Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday morning.
Notably cooler temperatures look to continue Tuesday and Wednesday morning in the wake of a strong cold front and budding sfc high pressure. With winds remaining relatively weak, expect dropping winds chills to primarily be a factor of efficient radiational cooling. Nonetheless, latest deterministic and ensemble guidance have trended a touch warmer, resulting in wind chill values in the low to mid 20s. While a few locations may briefly fall below 20 degF, confidence remains low that conditions will be widespread enough to warrant a Cold Weather Advisory either day. In any event, still want to encourage folks to take necessary precautions for these cold temperatures. This can include dressing in warm layers, limiting time outside, and insulating/exposing pipes to heated air.
Otherwise, expect afternoon highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s to gradually warm into the mid 50s to lower 60s by Wednesday. Temperatures then return to near normal for the remainder of week before a strong cold front and pattern change arrive over the weekend.
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.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 12Z Tuesday.
Extended Aviation Forecast: VFR.
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.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: High pressure will filter into the region from the west, leading to quiet weather conditions across local waters. In general, west winds between 10-15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt today will turn northwest and slightly weaken tonight. Seas will range between 1-3 ft nearshore and 3-4 ft across outer Georgia waters.
Tuesday Onward: Northwesterly winds may become a tad breezy on Tuesday, with gusts up to 20 kts possible through late morning. Wave heights then begin to trend upwards on Wednesday, continuing into Thursday as swells moves in from the Atlantic. Nonetheless, with seas still less than 6 ft, not expecting any SCAs at this time.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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DPB/SST