FXUS62 KCHS 031735 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1235 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections updated.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Fairly widespread rain will move through the area
Wednesday ahead of a cold front, then taper off late Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Fairly widespread rain will move through the area Wednesday ahead of a cold front, then taper off late Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
A potent shortwave will round the base of the upper trough late Wednesday, shifting over the area Wednesday night. Surface low pressure will develop along the NC coast before shifting northeast. A cold front will move through Wednesday night with high pressure then rebuilding. Decent Gulf moisture advection expected ahead of the front with PWs exceeding 1" late Wednesday afternoon. A fairly widespread band of showers will move into the area Wednesday morning, then slowly transition through the forecast area and off the coast by around daybreak Thursday. Total QPF will generally be 1/4" to 1/2", though interior SC/GA could see a bit more than that. The only notable change with this forecast cycle is that guidance has a slightly slower frontal progression. There is now some indication that a few showers could linger along the SC coast until mid-morning on Thursday.
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.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR through daybreak Wednesday. Rain showers will move over the terminals late morning or early afternoon. VFR conditions expected through 18Z, though ceiling restrictions will be possible starting around that time.
Extended Aviation Outlook: MVFR ceilings likely Wednesday afternoon and evening as a cold front brings widespread rain showers. IFR ceilings possible late Wednesday night, then VFR Thursday onward.
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.MARINE...
W winds will increase Thursday behind the cold front, with 25 kt gusts on the offshore GA waters potentially necessitating Small Craft Advisories. SCAs could continue through Friday night in this zone as seas briefly build to 6-7 ft.
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.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar is operational, but could go down at any time. Additional repairs are planned for Wednesday or Thursday.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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JRL