FXUS62 KCHS 291128 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 728 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation Section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Elevated risk for wildfires continues into Sunday.
- 2) Mostly dry conditions through mid-week with above normal
temperatures.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Elevated fire weather risk today.
Rain-free conditions will persist across our area today. Northeast winds this morning will transition to the east this afternoon, occasionally gusting to 20 mph, especially closer to the coast. However, minimum RH values this afternoon will generally be above 40%, except higher at/near the beaches. Even though these weather conditions don't meet the typical criteria of a Fire Danger Statement, we have one in effect following our agencies previous days coordination. Extremely dry fuels will result in an elevated risk for wildfires.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Mostly dry conditions through mid-week with above normal temperatures.
A mostly dry/zonal pattern to start off the week is expected to transition to a period of strong mid-lvl ridging while sfc high pressure prevails across the Southeast for much of the week. A warming trend is expected as a result, with latest guidance supporting high temps in the low-mid 80s away from the coast (sea breeze influences) Tuesday through Thursday.
A cold front could approach the region late in the week, bringing a higher potential for measurable rainfall next weekend.
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.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 12Z Monday. However, the is a risk for near MVFR cigs to impact the SAV terminal Sunday morning. Confidence remains too low to have flight restrictions at SAV at this time. LLWS has been introduced at CHS/JZI terminals from 12-15Z this morning, prior to sfc winds gusting. Gusty easterly winds (20-25 kt) are anticipated at all terminals late Sunday morning and afternoon. Winds should then decrease at all terminals heading into Sunday evening, becoming light and variable for the bulk of Sunday night as high pressure remains across the region.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through Wednesday. TEMPO flight restrictions possible at all terminals with daily showers and/or thunderstorms Thursday into next weekend.
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.MARINE...
Today through Tuesday: An enhanced pressure gradient resides across the area this morning, supporting Small Craft Advisories for all waters outside the Charleston Harbor. However, expect winds to slowly diminish late morning through the afternoon with seas also subsiding through tonight. Small Craft Advisories will begin to drop across SC waters by around 2 AM Monday as a result, followed by nearshore GA waters Monday afternoon. High seas will continue to linger across outer GA waters, where a Small Craft Advisory continues into Tuesday morning. Conditions should then remain below Small Craft Advisory levels during the middle of next week along the western periphery of the Atlantic high.
High Surf: The latest NWPS wave guidance continues to support 5-6 ft breakers occurring along Georgia beaches, then expanding north along the lower South Carolina coast late night. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for all beaches through 11 AM today.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GAZ117-119-
139-141.
SC...High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for SCZ048>051. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for AMZ350-352.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Monday for AMZ354. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ374.
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