FXUS62 KCHS 241809 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 109 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through the remainder of the holiday week. A cold front will move through the area early next week.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Another warm/above normal day this afternoon as a deep layer ridge remains to our west and over much of the southern and central U.S. states. A very weak backdoor front is expected to sag into the extreme northern area later this afternoon/early this evening, which will only temporarily veer winds to NE. Otherwise, high temperatures on track to reach the mid to even upper 70s in some spots this afternoon, which will be just shy of daily record high values.
Tonight, the mid and upper level ridge remains west of the area, with a surface ridge centered from the eastern mid Atlantic states, southwest to interior SC and GA. This will allow very light to calm winds most areas after sunset. Given some increase in mid and high clouds later tonight, conditions will not be as ideal for radiational cooling. Thus, low temperatures tonight area again expected to be above normal, generally in the lower to mid 50s.
Forecaster note: This will be my last forecast after nearly 34 years of service to the National Weather Service. It has been a pleasure and an honor to serve the agency, my co-workers, our partners, and the public over the past three decades. Happy Holidays, and have a Happy, healthy New Year!
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.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Christmas through Saturday, short term guidance indicates that a strong H5 ridge will remain centered over the Gulf, with the ridge axis extending between the central CONUS and Appalachians. During the period, a clipper system will track east across the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic states. This pattern will keep the forecast area under dry NW flow aloft. At the sfc, high pressure should remain centered over the northern Gulf coast. Overall, the forecast will feature dry and very mild conditions through the short term period. Temperature should trend warmer through the rest of the week. Saturday is forecast to see the warmest values, featuring lows in the mid 50s and highs in the mid to upper 70s. In fact, temperatures may range within 3 degrees of record high temperatures for Saturday, see Climate section.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Very mild and dry weather will continue across the forecast area through this weekend. The H5 pattern will continue to feature a shallow longwave ridge across the eastern CONUS. High pressure will remain across the Southeast U.S. through Sunday night. Recent runs of the long term guidance has trended slower with the passage of the cold front. 12z runs times the front pushing off the coast Monday evening. As a result, Monday temperatures were adjusted warmer, with highs around 70 degrees. Conditions should turn sharply cooler for Tuesday and Wednesday. The coldest conditions forecast for Tuesday night / Wednesday morning, with low temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. The cold temperatures combined with wind speeds between 5 to 10 mph may result in wind chill values around 20 degrees across inland counties. LREF probs of wind chill values less than 21 peaks across inland GA with values around 20 percent. Conditions should remain dry, except for isolated rain showers over the marine zones late Monday.
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.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z TAFs: VFR through Christmas day.
Extended Aviation Outlook: A brief period of MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible Friday morning. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail.
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.MARINE...
No highlights through Christmas morning. A surface ridge is expected to sit northeast of the waters, with northeast winds of 15 knots or less, veering to southeast late. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday through Monday: Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Sunday. Winds will average less than 15 knots with seas 2-4 feet. The main time period of concern is late Sunday night into Monday as a strong cold front approaches and sweeps across the Atlantic waters. Winds could develop gusts around 25 kts with seas up to six feet, especially across the outer GA and nearshore Charleston County waters.
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.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures: December 27: KCHS: 78/2021 KCXM: 76/2015 KSAV: 80/2015
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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NEAR TERM...RFM SHORT TERM...NED LONG TERM...NED AVIATION...NED/RFM MARINE...NED/RFM