FXUS62 KCHS 212330 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 630 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Key Message 1 has been removed as the severe threat this afternoon/evening has ended. The Aviation Section has been updated to reflect the 00Z TAF issuance.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Sub-freezing temperatures return Sunday night and persist into the mid-week.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Sub-freezing temperatures return Sunday night and persist into the mid-week.
As a cold front pushes off the coastline on Sunday morning, expect cold surface high pressure to build into the region behind it. This will yield a considerably colder airmass for the early next week with well below-normal temperatures, widespread below freezing temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings, and wind chills dropping into the upper teens to low 20s for some areas.
Temperatures will fall Sunday afternoon with breezy northwest winds and continued cold air advection through Sunday night. By Monday morning, lows will reach the upper 20s inland and low 30s along the coastline, but gusty winds will make it feel like low to mid 20s area-wide, with upper teens possible inland. Therefore, a Cold Weather Advisory might be warranted. Highs on Monday will struggle to reach 50F (more than 15 degrees below normal for Feb.).
The coldest period is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning, with lows in the low to mid 20s inland and upper 20s near the coastline. Despite wind speeds being much lighter, wind chills will still fall into the low to mid 20s, with a few upper teens possible. Another Cold Weather Advisory may be warranted. Highs on Tuesday will moderate slightly, reaching into the low to mid 50s.
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.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The 00Z TAF period will initialize with LIFR at KCHS, MVFR at KJZI, and VFR at KSAV. Restrictive cigs will move into KJZI and KSAV over the next few hours, with all terminals expected to be LIFR/IFR by midnight. Light showers will persist through the overnight period as well. Cigs will improve with daybreak Sunday, improving to VFR by the afternoon hours. Gusty NW winds will develop Sunday morning at all terminals, with gusts 25 to 35 knots expected.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.
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.MARINE...
Through This Evening: A stronger band of showers/thunderstorms will move through the waters. These storms could produce localized wind gusts in excess of 34 kt, isolated waterspouts, and cloud-to-water lightning. Special Marine Warnings could eventually be needed.
Low pressure will move northeast of our area tonight, dragging a strong cold front with it. This front should move through our waters early Sunday morning, then quickly shift offshore, causing winds to shift to the northwest. Strong High pressure will then start building in from the west. The interaction between these two synoptic features along with strong cold air advection will bring gale conditions to the waters Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Therefore, we upgraded the Gale Watches to Gale Warnings. Normally, we would have Small Craft Advisories in effect before the Warnings. However, the winds ramp up so rapidly that the Advisories would only be in effect for 2-3 hours. Therefore, we just opted to start the Warnings a little earlier. We also have a Small Craft Advisory for the Charleston Harbor. Conditions improve on Monday, as High pressure gets closer to the region. Winds and seas will be noticeably lower on Tuesday as the High moves over our region.
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.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
February 21: KSAV: 84/2018
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
February 21: KCHS: 62/2023 KSAV: 63/2023
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 8 AM EST Monday for
AMZ330. Gale Warning from 3 PM Sunday to 8 AM EST Monday for AMZ350. Gale Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 8 AM EST Monday for AMZ352- 354. Gale Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 AM EST Monday for AMZ374.
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CPM/SST