FXUS62 KCHS 251108 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 708 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Temperatures warm to near-record values on Friday.
- 2) A dry cold front will move through Friday night, bringing a
pattern change for this weekend.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures warm to near-record values on Friday.
As a broad ridge axis builds/expands across Texas, the region falls under the eastern periphery of the upper level feature with geopotential heights remaining fairly steady. At the surface, a high pressure will be in the western Atlantic, with temperatures expected to rise each day as warm 850mb temperatures overspread the region. Afternoon highs around 70 are expected for today, upper 70s to mid 80s on Thursday, and near-record upper 80s to around 90 on Friday, 5-10 degrees cooler along the coast. Precipitation chances look to remain low given the synoptic scale descent aloft.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A dry cold front will move through Friday night, bringing a pattern change for this weekend.
A dry cold front will move through our region Friday night, quickly shifting offshore into Saturday. High pressure will then pass to our north late Saturday, then shift off the Mid-Atlantic Coast into Sunday. Cooler temperatures will be ushered into our area behind the front, with highs a few degrees below normal. They'll range from the mid to upper 60s across most of our counties, to the lower to middle 70s south of I-16 Saturday and Sunday. It'll also be breezy Friday night into Saturday. We may need a Lake Wind Advisory for Moultrie during this time period. Additionally, afternoon RH values could drop into the teens and 20s inland on Saturday, so we could have fire weather concerns. Afternoon RH values could be even lower on Sunday, though winds shouldn't be as gusty.
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.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Prior to the 12Z TAFs, satellite and observations indicated MVFR ceilings across KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. The restrictive ceilings over KCHS and KJZI are forecast to end by mid-day. MVFR ceilings over KSAV may linger 20Z, however, ceilings may begin to fracture between 16-20Z highlighted with a TEMPO. A weak sea breeze may push across the terminals this afternoon, resulting winds shifting from the east. Winds should become light and variable after sunset. Thinning cloud cover and light winds may support the formation of patchy fog late tonight. At this time, the KCHS and KSAV TAFs will indicate ground fog reducing visibility to 6SM by 10Z.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. Expect gusty winds behind a dry cold front on Saturday.
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.MARINE...
Northeast winds should continue to produce gusts to around 25 kts early this morning. Winds will decrease through the day as high pressure builds across the marine zones. However, wave heights may remain six ft or greater this morning, then should subside from north to south across the waters. Small Craft Advisories will highlight the wind and wave height conditions through much of the day, outside the Charleston Harbor. Six foot seas are forecast to diminish across the outer GA waters this evening, with the last Small Craft Advisory for the outer GA waters ending at midnight. High pressure will likely linger across the marine zones through the rest of the work week.
Extended Marine: A dry cold front will move through our region Friday night, quickly shifting offshore into Saturday. High pressure will then pass to our north late Saturday, then shift off the Mid- Atlantic Coast into Sunday. Expect gale conditions across all of our waters early Saturday, followed by near gale conditions later Saturday into Sunday. Conditions will gradually improve on Monday. Though, seas could stay elevated across the GA waters beyond 20 nm into Tuesday.
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.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
March 27: KCHS: 87/2021 KCXM: 81/2021 KSAV: 89/2021
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ352. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ354. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ374.
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MS/NED