FXUS62 KCHS 042303 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 603 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section was updated for the 00z TAFs.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Some much needed rain will fall across the area today
through early Thursday as a cold front pushes through.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Some much needed rain will fall across the area today through early Thursday as a cold front pushes through.
A surface cold front is approaching the region from the west this afternoon. Aloft, a positively tilted trough positioned just west of the Ohio River Valley at 250 hPa will swing eastward through this afternoon and tonight. Rainfall will continue to spread eastward this afternoon, with most locations receiving generally 0.25-0.5" of rain. While the surface cold front is expected to clear the region late tonight/early Thursday morning, this upper trough will still be situated over the Eastern CONUS Thursday morning. This will likely yield very light rain or even drizzle over portions of the forecast area, especially the Charleston Tri-County. While the cold front will usher in a colder airmass, temperatures are expected to remain above freezing while precipitation lingers. There is a very low chance (<10%) that very northern Berkeley County could see temperatures briefly drop below freezing early Thursday morning while some precipitation is ongoing. Given that this scenario is such a low probability it is not reflected in the forecast, but worth mentioning there could be a little freezing rain in this location.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Prior to the 0Z TAFs, KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV were generally VFR, MVFR vis at KJZI due to rainfall. However, looking just upstream of the terminals IFR ceilings with MVFR visibility were common under the rain band. Restrictive conditions should increase across the terminals by 3z, highlighted with TEMPOs. IFR ceilings should become widespread across the terminals late tonight, possibly remaining through the remainder of the 0Z TAF period. Winds should shift from the north around daybreak Thursday in the wake of passing cold front, with the marginal gusts possible during the afternoon.
Extended Aviation Outlook: MVFR cigs could persist into mid-late afternoon Thursday at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals. VFR conditions should then return Thursday night and prevail during the weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front will approach the region today, favoring a southwest wind in the 10-15 kt range with occasional gusts to 20 kt away from the coast. Seas should range between 2-4 ft. The front is expected to shift across the region tonight, tightening the pressure gradient across local waters prior to arrival this evening, then followed by strong cold air advection within a north-northwest flow in its wake during the second half of the night. As a result, winds/seas will trend stronger/larger heading into the day Thursday and are anticipated to reach Small Craft Advisory levels across outer Georgia waters Thursday afternoon and evening (northwest winds gusting to around 25 kt and seas 4-6 ft), before improvement begins with high pressure becoming more centered nearby during the second half of the night. A Small Craft Advisory has been therefore been issued for offshore Georgia waters Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning.
Conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory levels for all waters for much of the daytime Friday, but are anticipated to deteriorate again with another passing cold front late day and overnight. Small Craft Advisories should be needed for all local waters with west winds gusting upwards to 25-30 kt across most areas. There is even a low-end threat for gale force wind gusts across outer Georgia waters Friday night. Seas should also build largest away from the coast, generally up to 5-8 ft during the peak of the event Friday night. Conditions then improve during the weekend, falling below Small Craft Advisory levels across all waters late morning Saturday, then remain below advisory levels while high pressure dominates the pattern into early next week.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar is operational, but could go down at any time. Additional repairs are planned for Wednesday or Thursday.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday for
AMZ374.
&&
$$
CPM/DPB/NED