FXUS62 KCHS 300630 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 230 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Key Message 1 has been updated to reflect a warming trend this week. The Aviation Section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance. The Marine Section has been updated to remove Small Craft Advisories across nearshore SC waters.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Prevailing high pressure will yield minimal rain chances
through mid-week with above normal temperatures.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Prevailing high pressure will yield minimal rain chances through mid-week with above normal temperatures.
Zonal flow early week will transition to a strengthening ridge pattern aloft, while sfc high pressure holds across the local area for much of the week. The pattern will support a warming trend as a result, with latest guidance supporting high temps in the low-mid 80s away from the coast (sea breeze influences) Tuesday through Thursday. Conditions are also expected to remain dry for a bulk of the week, although weak h5 vort energy could help produce light precip activity across the interior Wednesday afternoon.
A cold front could approach the region late in the week, bringing a higher potential for measurable rainfall this upcoming weekend.
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.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 06Z Tuesday.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through mid-week. TEMPO flight restrictions possible at all terminals with daily showers and/or thunderstorms during the upcoming weekend.
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.MARINE...
Prior to Daybreak: The pressure gradient will continue to weaken across local waters while high pressure dominates the pattern across the region. This will support improving conditions across all waters through daybreak. Latest wind/sea obs have already dropped below Small Craft Advisory criteria across nearshore SC waters, and will likely fall below this criteria across nearshore GA waters prior to sunrise. A Small Craft Advisory will continue to outer GA waters due to lingering 6-8 ft seas.
Today and Tonight: High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the Southeast United States, favoring wind conditions well below Small Craft Advisory levels across local waters. However, lingering 5-7 ft seas will be slow to subside across outer Georgia waters, where a Small Craft Advisory is anticipated to persist into Tuesday morning.
Extended Marine: High pressure will persist across the region through late week, supporting winds/seas that remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions. The exception will be across outer GA waters, where 6 ft seas could linger into mid morning hours Tuesday, then possibly rebuild to 6 ft again Thursday night into Friday as a front approaches the Southeast United States late week.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
AMZ354. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ374.
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