FXUS62 KCHS 192333 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 633 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail over the weekend, with another cold front forecast to impact the area Monday.
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Tonight the upper level trough will push off the Eastern Seaboard with high pressure dominating at the surface. As the winds go calm, combined with the clear skies, a very good radiational cooling regime will set up tonight. Low temperatures are forecast to dip into the low 30s inland with upper 30s to near 40 along the coastal counties.
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sfc high pressure builds across the region Saturday in the wake of FROPA, allowing dry conditions to prevail. Winds look to remain light during this time, with direction shifting more southeasterly through the afternoon as the aforementioned high drifts into the Mid- Atlantic. Outside of this, expect dewpoints to rise a bit as a sea- breeze pushes inland, with highs rising into the lower 60s under sunny skies.
Upper level flow remains quasi-zonal heading into Sunday as a shortwave strengthens south of the James Bay area. Meanwhile, at the sfc, high pressure building into into the Mid-Atlantic will force a cold front through our area Sunday, with CAD building down the coast late Sunday through the early part of next week. That being said, overall moisture remains quite meager, keeping the forecast dry. In regard to temperatures, have afternoon highs warming into the mid to upper 60s Sunday prior to FROPA, with temperatures then dipping back into the 50s to lower 60s Monday in its wake.
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Quiet conditions continue throughout the extended period as sfc high pressure strengthens overhead. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance also remain in good agreement that strong upper level ridging will develop across the central CONUS during this time, allowing unseasonably warm temperatures to prevail. Currently have highs in the 60s Tuesday warming into the 70s by Christmas Eve/Christmas Day. Lows will also remain quite mild, as temperatures only fall into the mid to upper 40s.
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.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR expected to prevail over the weekend, with periods of MVFR possible Monday morning in the wake of FROPA.
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.MARINE...
Winds have continued to subside this evening and seas have dropped below 6 ft over all marine zones, therefore the Small Craft Advisory for Charleston nearshore and GA offshore waters will expire at 7 pm.
Saturday and Sunday: Seas 2 to 4 ft with winds gusting up to 15 kt at times. No advisories or warnings are expected.
Early next week: High pressure building over the Mid-Atlantic will force a reinforcing backdoor cold front down the coast later Sunday into Monday. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for all zones (the one exception being the harbor), with winds peaking around daybreak Monday. Gale probs remain less than 10% at this point. Winds will gradually subside into midweek as ridging moves more directly overhead.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ350-
374.
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NEAR TERM...CPM/JRL SHORT TERM...CEB LONG TERM...CEB AVIATION...CPM/JRL MARINE...CEB/CPM