FXUS62 KCHS 310629 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 229 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Key Message 1 has been updated to reflect the ongoing warming trend this week. Key Message 2 has been introduced for increased rain chances early next week. The Aviation Section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance. The Marine Section has been updated to reflect an ongoing Small Craft Advisory across outer Georgia waters.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Warm temperatures with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible during the latter half of the week.
- 2) A cold front could bring increased rain chances early next
week.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Warm temperatures with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible during the latter half of the week.
Atlantic high pressure will extend across the area through late week, while ridging dominates aloft. This pattern will favor warming temperatures with most locations away from the coast (generally inland of Highway 17) expected to be back in the low to mid 80s. These values are around 5-10 degrees above early April normals. Lows will also be seasonally mild.
Otherwise, weather will be fairly quiet. Isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the latter half of the week. Shear and instability is rather weak, so the severe weather threat is minimal. Unfortunately for our widespread D2-D3 drought conditions, significant rainfall is not anticipated.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front could bring increased rain chances early next week.
Mid level ridging will give way to a broad trough shifting into the eastern U.S. Sunday into Monday. This will bring the next cold front to the area. Based on current guidance, the front will remain to the west through much of the daytime hours on Sunday, leading to another warm day. NBM is showing a relatively small spread in temperatures, so it seems highs in the 80s are good bet. Convective coverage is a bit more uncertain, but higher rain chances will be possible along and ahead of the front.
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.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 06Z Wednesday. There is a risk for shallow ground fog to develop at the terminals prior to 12Z Tuesday, but confidence is low and impact minimal to introduce in the latest TAF issuance.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through mid-week. TEMPO flight restrictions possible at all terminals with daily showers and/or thunderstorms during the upcoming weekend, and with the arrival of a front early next week.
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.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: The pattern will support a light east/southwest wind along the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure, favoring conditions well below Small Craft Advisory levels for a majority of waters. The exception remains across outer Georgia waters, where lingering 6 ft seas persist into early daylight hours. Conditions will slowly improve to below Small Craft Advisory levels in this noted area as well, leading to rather quiet marine conditions for the remainder of the day and night for all local waters.
Extended Marine: High pressure will persist across the region through late week, supporting winds/seas that remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions for a majority of waters. The exception will be across outer Georgia waters, where seas build back to 6 ft late week as a slight packing of the pressure gradient occurs. A more notable increase in winds/seas occurs early next week as a cold front approaches and shifts across the area. Small Craft Advisories could eventually be needed for a portion of local waters early next week.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ374.
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DPB/ETM