FXUS62 KCHS 102344 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 644 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through this evening and push offshore Thursday morning. An arctic cold front is timed to sweep across the region late Sunday, with a cold air mass impacting the region early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front is approaching from the NW early this evening, causing SW winds ahead of it. As the cold front moves through the region late this evening into tonight, winds will turn to the NW behind the front and remain breezy with gusts in the teens to lower 20s thanks to increasing pressure along with cold-air advection. Areas along the coast may see gusts closer to the mid 20s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 30s inland into the lower 40s along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Longwave H5 trough axis will ripple east on Thursday, with zonal flow developing over the forecast area for Friday and Saturday. At the sfc, dry high pressure should generally remain across the Deep South and Southeast U.S. through the short term period. A fast moving disturbance or clipper-like system will track over the Ohio River Valley early Friday, yielding warming llvl thicknesses across the forecast area late this week. Temperatures through the period should gradually warm. The coolest temperatures should occur Friday morning, with lows around 30 degrees inland to the upper 30s along the coast. High temperatures on Saturday are forecast to range from the mid 60s across the SC Lowcountry to the upper 60s across SE GA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Saturday night, an arctic cold front will approach from the northwest, expected to remain upstream of the CWA prior to sunrise Sunday. Low temperature Sunday morning area forecast to range from the low 40s inland to near 50 along the coast. Conditions will remain dry.
On Sunday, long term guidance indicates that strong CAA will arrive during the late afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to range in the low to mid 60s. The center of an arctic air mass will reach the southern Appalachians by daybreak Monday, then building over the forecast area by Tuesday morning. Using a blend of MOS, low temperatures on Monday are forecast to range in the low to mid 20s. The cold temperatures combined with north winds around 10 mph, wind chill values are forecast to dip well into the teens, likely requiring a Cold Weather Advisory for the CWA. High temperatures under full sun on Monday may only reach into the 40s. By Monday night, prime radiational cooling conditions should remain across the region, deep dry air, light winds, and fresh CAA. Low temperature Monday night into Tuesday morning are forecast to range in the mid to upper 20s, with localized low 20s inland. With light to calm winds, wind chill values should remain above 20 degrees.
By Tuesday into Wednesday, the forecast area will remain between high pressure centered over the western Atlantic and broad low pressure over the southern Mississippi River Valley. This pattern will result in WAA and increasing cloud cover. High temperatures on Wednesday should return to normal, with highs favoring values in the low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z TAFs: VFR will prevail. A cold front will move through late this evening, causing SW winds to shift to the NW, especially by daybreak Thursday. While there could be occasional gusts up to 20 kt tonight, it doesn't appear to be over a large enough time period to maintain in the TAFs. However, based on the CHS radiosonde, we are maintaining the LLWS at all of the TAF sites for the next few hours.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight: Buoys observations this evening indicate southwest winds have increased to 15-20 knots across all of our waters, with gusts around 30 knots. Though, winds are taking a bit longer to increase in the Charleston Harbor. The strongest winds are expected through the early morning hours when wind speeds are expected to increase into the 20-25 knot range with frequent gusts up to around 30 knots. There remains a small window of time from the late evening into the early morning hours where wind gusts around gale force will be possible in the Charleston County waters and the outer GA waters. Areal coverage of Gale force winds continues to look too marginal so will continue with the Small Craft Advisory for now, but will be monitoring observations and model trends to see if an upgrade is necessary. Seas will ramp up with the increasing winds, becoming 3-5 feet by early evening and then peaking in the early morning hours as 6 ft seas get into the SC nearshore waters and up to 7 feet in the outer GA waters. Winds and seas will both start to diminish a bit as sunrise Thursday approaches, but will overall conditions will continue to support the ongoing Small Craft Advisories.
Thursday through Monday: Six ft seas will subside across the outer GA waters Thursday morning. Small Craft Advisory for the outer GA waters should end by noon. Fair conditions should remain across the marine zones Thursday afternoon through Saturday night. A passing arctic cold front will result in strengthening winds and building seas late Sunday through Monday. Small Craft Advisory winds and seas should develop across the Atlantic waters early next week.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 5 AM EST Thursday for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Thursday for AMZ330-354.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for AMZ350-352. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Thursday for AMZ374.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...NED LONG TERM...NED AVIATION...NED MARINE...NED