FXUS62 KCHS 030556 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1256 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The threat of fog early this morning over the far southern portion of southeastern GA remains along with sea fog over the adjacent nearshore waters. The Aviation Section was updated to reflect the 06Z TAF issuance.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Areas of fog expected across portions of coastal southeast
Georgia tonight.
- 2) Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through the
weekend.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Areas of fog expected across portions of coastal southeast Georgia tonight.
Recent surface analysis show that the backdoor cold front that pushed through the region yesterday has stalled along the Altamaha River in GA. The flow along across the region and adjacent nearshore waters will remain out of the northeast as high pressure builds in behind the front. A pocket of sea fog is located across the nearshore waters off the coast of southeastern GA, which could approach the coastal counties through the remainder of tonight. HREF probabilities for vsbys <0.5 mi have decreased slightly from the previous forecast, only showing around 30% across Long, Liberty, and McIntosh Counties. While probabilities are lower, a Dense Fog Advisory can not be ruled out for a small portion of southeastern GA tonight into early this morning.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through the weekend.
A wedge of high pressure will gradually weaken and move offshore tonight as a 587 dm ridge builds across the Florida Peninsula. By midweek, the upper level ridge will also shift offshore, and deep- layered high pressure will remain in place through the weekend. This pattern will suppress rain chances due to persistent subsidence and support a significant warming trend.
With the exception of today, afternoon highs will climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s inland each day. Areas across southeast Georgia, particularly near the Altamaha River, could see temperatures reach the mid to upper 80s by late week. Overnight lows will steadily warm as well, rising into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Despite this, no record breaking temperatures are forecast at this time.
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.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR cigs will initialize at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV for the 06Z TAF period. Restrictive cigs will linger through the remainder of the overnight period. Cigs should improve to MVFR by mid morning and then VFR by around noontime. Another round of fog/low stratus is expected to impact the terminals tonight into Wednesday morning. The current TAFs don't include any restrictions given timing uncertainty. These details will be worked out in future TAF issuances.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Restrictive ceilings are possible overnight into the early morning hours each night through the end of the week due to low stratus/fog.
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.MARINE...
Webcam and satellite observations show that a pocket of sea fog is lingering across the nearshore GA waters tonight. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for this zone through 8 AM. Sea fog is expected to dissipate late this morning before possibly redeveloping this afternoon as the warm airmass remains over the forecast area. Additional Marine Dense Fog Advisories will likely be required.
Winds will turn easterly tonight into Wednesday, then shift southeasterly by late week on the backside of high pressure. Wind speeds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. However, sea fog could become a recurring concern this week as warm, moist air continues to flow over the cooler shelf waters. Fog may redevelop repeatedly and could be persistent through the weekend, occasionally reducing visibility for mariners.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ354.
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BRS/CPM