AFD_CHS

FXUS62 KCHS 022314 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 614 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Key Message 1 and the marine section was updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1) Areas of fog expected across portions of coastal southeast

Georgia tonight.

- 2) Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected Tuesday into

the weekend.

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Areas of fog expected across portions of coastal southeast Georgia tonight.

Webcams out of Tybee, Sapelo Island and Saint Simons show extensive sea fog has redeveloped along the Georgia coast. Near term guidance has an okay handle on the situation and gradually expands it west into the Georgia coastal zones overnight. While there may be somewhat of an improvement over the next few hours over Tybee Island and coastal Chatham, fog is expected to expand back into those areas overnight. As noted below, A Dense Fog Advisory may become necessary for parts of the Georgia coast

A backdoor cold front pushed across most of the forecast area today. Recent visible satellite images show a surge of low clouds and fog pushing SW across the Georgia waters. The flow across the nearshore waters will remain from the northeast tonight, supported by the pressure gradient between an inland ridge and trough over the Gulf Stream. Given the steady northeast wind, moisture should stream over the coastal areas of SE Georgia through tonight. Forecast soundings over SE GA show a strong H9 inversion today, remaining overnight. Moisture will remain below the inversion, building down late tonight. The forecast will indicate that areas of fog will develop this evening over the coastal counties from McIntosh to Chatham Counties. The fog may spread gradually inland through the overnight hours. HREF probabilities of less than a half mile increase to 60 percent over the area by 6 AM. It is possible that a Dense Fog Advisory could be needed for coastal GA and the adjacent waters tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected Tuesday into the weekend.

The mid-levels will consist of weak zonal flow overhead on Tuesday. Broad ridging will build over the Gulf coast states Tuesday night, then shift over the Southeast U.S. Wednesday. The ridge will shift offshore on Thursday, then prevail in that location through the weekend. At the surface, the wedge of High pressure to our north will gradually erode on Tuesday. High pressure will then prevail in the western Atlantic Wednesday through the weekend. This pattern will promote a drastic warming trend and unseasonably warm temperatures. High temperatures Tuesday will range from near 70 degrees across most of our SC counties, to the lower 70s across our GA counties, with all of our beaches being cooler. Temperatures rise a few degrees on Wednesday, ranging from the mid to upper 70s across our SC counties to the upper 70s to lower 80s across our GA counties, except cooler at/near all of our beaches. High temperatures Thursday into the weekend will remain well above normal. They'll be in the upper 70s to lower 80s across our SC counties and the lower to middle 80s across our GA counties. Though, it'll be cooler at/near the beaches. Low temperatures during this time period will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Models have trended drier for the end of this week into the weekend. POPs are now slight chance across our far inland counties Friday and Saturday afternoon. POPs trend higher everywhere on Sunday.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

03/00z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR cigs are poised to quickly give way to MVFR and eventually IFR cigs at all terminals overnight. IFR looks to reach KSAV as early as sunset, possibly an hour or two after and around 05z at KCHS and KJZI. Fog is not expected to be much of an issue with cigs expected to bottom out around or just below alternate minimums. VFR will return by late morning at all three sites.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Restrictive ceilings are possible overnight into the early morning hours each night through late week due to low stratus/fog.

.MARINE...

Winds will slowly diminish across the waters tonight. The Small Craft Advisories have been cancelled for the Georgia legs, but continues until 1 AM for the South Carolina legs. Webcams show extensive sea fog has developed along the Georgia coast. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued until 8 AM Tuesday for the Savannah-Altamaha Sound nearshore leg.

High pressure builds over the region on Tuesday and will prevail in the western Atlantic midweek through the weekend. This will cause surface winds to shift to the east by Wednesday, then the southeast Wednesday night into the weekend. Winds and seas will stay below Small Craft Advisory levels.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ350-352.

Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ354.