FXUS62 KCHS 290626 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 226 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region tonight, followed by high pressure through the weekend. A low pressure system could impact the area early next week.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CAD will remain across the forecast this morning, expected to gradually weaken during the afternoon. Near term guidance keeps an approaching cold front west of the forecast area through 21Z. Wind should remain from the NNE between 5 to 10 mph this morning, shifting from the SE this afternoon. Temperatures should remain generally steady in the 50s this morning, then gradually warming into the 60s this afternoon.
The cold front is timed to sweep across the forecast area this evening. A thin line of isolated to scattered showers may develop along and ahead of the cold front. These showers may produce a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain along and west of I-95, with less than a tenth of an inch to the east. Behind the cold front, H85 CAA may drop temperatures from 10-12C during the evening across SE GA to 3-4C by sunrise Thursday. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 40s across SE GA to around 50 along the coast.
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.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will prevail across the region through the short term period, building into the region from the west. Aloft the mid levels will consist of broad troughing to nearly zonal flow. This pattern will yield rain-free conditions, with the main forecast highlight being the below normal temperatures. Each day is forecast to only reach into the mid to upper 60s, roughly 5-7 degrees below normal across the region. The coldest time frame of the period will be Friday night, where low temperatures are forecast to dip into the upper 30s far inland, with mid to upper 40s along the coastal counties. Frost cannot be ruled out far inland, and a Frost Advisory may be required for inland counties.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The zonal flow aloft will begin to transition to troughing as a mid- level trough digs towards the southeastern states. High pressure at the surface will shift offshore as a low pressure system develops in the northern Gulf. Despite the approaching low pressure system and its associated cold front, the forecast remains dry through the period. Temperatures will slowly warm through the period, returning to near normal by the beginning of next week.
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.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Prior to the 6Z TAFs, IR satellite and observations indicated widespread IFR ceilings with periods of MVFR visibility with drizzle and mist. Based on satellite trends and MOS, IFR ceilings should remain through the rest of the morning at KCHS and KJZI, ending at KSAV by mid-morning. The rest of the day should see some return flow from the southeast as a cold front approaches from the east. Cloud bases are forecast to lift to MVFR this afternoon at KCHS and KJZI, VFR at KSAV. The cold front is timed to reach KSAV this evening, winds veering from the west by 4Z. Also, a thin line of showers is possible with the passage of the cold front.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. Gusty W to NW winds around 20 mph are possible on Thursday.
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.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: Weakening high pressure will yield northeast winds generally between 10-15 kts today, shifting from the southeast late this afternoon. Seas should slowly subside today, remaining between 5-6 ft across the Charleston County nearshore and outer GA waters today, highlighted with Small Craft Advisories. A cold front will sweep from west to east across the marine zones by late this evening. As the front passes, winds will turn from the west with gusts increasing to 20-25 kts. In the wake of the front, winds should gradually settle into the low 20s. Seas may increase by one foot overnight. It is possible that Small Craft Advisories may expand across the nearshore waters of GA and lower SC.
Thursday through Sunday: High pressure will prevail over the marine waters through the period. Elevated seas from distant Hurricane Melissa will linger into Thursday, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the Charleston nearshore waters and the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters through Friday afternoon. Otherwise, conditions are forecast to remain below SCA criteria.
Rip Currents: A combination of increasing swell and strong NE winds will yield a Moderate Risk of rip currents at all area beaches both today and Thursday. An enhanced risk of rip currents will likely persist into late-week.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for AMZ350-374.
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NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM...CPM LONG TERM...CPM AVIATION...CPM/NED MARINE...CPM/NED