FXUS62 KCHS 221752 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1252 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will move rapidly across the area tonight, followed by the return of high pressure through early next week. Another cold front is expected to impact the area mid week. High pressure and dry weather is expected for Thanksgiving.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Rest of this afternoon: Satellite imagery and surface obs showing that low clouds/stratus finally starting to break/lift over interior locations of southeast SC and much of our southeast GA zones. However, there are still broken to overcast cloud decks over the western area moving rapidly eastward. Thus, expect only partly sunny conditions rest of the afternoon, with the most sun closer to the coast. Breezy west-southwest winds with gusts of 15 to 25 mph will continue as strong mixing helps to bring down stronger winds just above the surface. Highs will be very warm for this time of year, generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Note: record high temperatures for today are 83 at CHS and 82 at SAV. It is possible we could approach those records, especially for CHS.
Radar has been indicating some very light showers west of our region, moving rapidly eastward toward our region. However, conditions are relatively dry through a deep layer of the atmosphere. So, for now, will continue to leave out mention of PoPs, since it appears any coverage of measurable precipitation will be less than 15%.
Tonight: A mostly dry cold front will move through the region later tonight, veering low level winds from westerly to northwest after midnight. The surface pressure gradient looks to weaken behind the front later tonight. There is not much in the way of low and mid level cold air advection with this front. So, low temperatures later tonight are expected to stay above normal, in the mid 50s to around 60, coolest well inland.
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will expand into the area behind a departing cold front on Sunday, with its center eventually shifting across the mid-Atlantic states and offshore Monday into Tuesday. Aloft, a trough will exit the East Coast allowing a ridge to build across the Southeast. The ridge axis will shift further east on Tuesday. This period should largely be dry, although there are hints a few showers could develop on Tuesday with a subtle coastal trough/warm front. Otherwise, temperatures will lean on the warmer side of normal especially Sunday and Tuesday when highs peak in the 75-80 range over most areas. Lows Sunday night ranging from the mid 40s inland to low/mid 50s at the immediate coast will gain a few degrees for Monday night.
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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mid level trough will push into the eastern CONUS during the middle of next week, with a cold front to approach the local area. This will bring the primary rain chances of the week, although it still does not seem to be a significant rainmaker. The front and associated rain chances are expected to have exited off the coast by Thanksgiving morning. Expect cool and dry conditions for the remainder of the period. Thursday night could see temps fall to around freezing across the far interior, but as a reminder, the local frost/freeze program has ended due to the widespread freeze earlier in the month.
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.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
This afternoon: There could be periodic MVFR CIGs through about 20 or 21Z this afternoon as deck of lower clouds west of the sites moves rapidly eastward. Gusty westerly winds of 15 to 22 kts will weaken after sunset. Tonight: Expect VFR to prevail all sites. An isolated showers cannot be ruled out ahead of the next cold front, which is expected to move through mostly dry later tonight/early Sunday morning.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.
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.MARINE...
No highlights are expected through tonight. However, brisk southwest winds through the afternoon will continue, with gusts of 18 to 22 knots possible. A relatively dry cold front will move through the waters very late tonight and into the early morning hours of Sunday. This will veer winds to light north-northwest by Sunday morning. Seas generally 2 to 3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm.
Sunday through Thursday: High pressure will build in behind a departing front on Sunday, before its center passes across the mid- Atlantic states and offshore towards the middle of the week. This will allow north/northeast winds to eventually turn more southerly. Speeds should average 15 knots or less with seas no higher than 2-4 feet. A cold front will approach from the west on Wednesday, crossing the waters Wednesday night. Winds will increase as a result, bringing some potential for a Small Craft Advisory over portions of the waters but seems marginal at this point.
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.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
November 22: KCXM: 79/1997 KCHS: 83/1973 KSAV: 82/1997
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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NEAR TERM...RFM SHORT TERM...ETM LONG TERM...ETM AVIATION...ETM/RFM MARINE...ETM/RFM