FXUS62 KCHS 052345 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 645 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The aviation discussion was updated for the 00z TAFs. A key message was also added for low wind chills Sunday morning.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A risk for isolated drizzle will linger today with cloudy
skies keeping temperatures well below normal for early February.
- 2) Cold temperatures with low wind chills across coastal South
Carolina Sunday morning.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A risk for isolated drizzle will linger today with cloudy skies keeping temperatures well below normal for early February.
Surface low pressure is well offshore this afternoon with a weak CAD front starting to undergo frontolysis near the South Carolina/ Georgia border. KCLX was changed to long pulse/ VCP 31 and the decaying CAD was analyzed just near Interstate 16.
Behind the CAD, temperatures have slowly fallen with drizzle mostly coming to an end, but overcast skies remain. Hourly temperatures continue to slowly fall through the day, with Moncks Corner already at 34 degrees. Mid 30s are being reported down to Colleton County.
There is still a low-end chance that a period of sub-freezing temperatures could work south into northern portions of Berkeley County later this afternoon into early evening. NBM probabilities for freezing drizzle are around 10 - 20% in the Saint Stephen to Jamestown corridor. If precipitation were to occur, it would be freezing drizzle given the dry air in the mid-levels and lack of sufficient ice nucleation in the cloud. This scenario is still considered an outlier solution, but trends are being monitored.
Later tonight, temperatures will fall below freezing across the entire area (except at the beaches), but drier air will filter into the region with precipitation chances near zero.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold temperatures with low wind chills across coastal South Carolina Sunday morning.
Arctic high pressure will settle across the Virgina / North Carolina border Sunday morning. The pressure gradient does appear tight enough for at least some wind, and with temperatures in the lower to mid 20s, wind chills in the teens are possible. The latest run of the LREF shows probabilities in the 50% to 75% range across the TriCounty with percentages in the 25% to 50% range for coastal Georgia. A Cold Weather Advisory might be required for portions of the area.
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.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Prior to the 0Z TAFs, observations indicated IFR to MVFR ceilings across the terminals. IR satellite indicated that the low clouds were beginning to break up over the Fall Line of the SC/GA. The breaks in the cloud cover should drift east, reaching the terminals by 6Z, resulting in VFR conditions. On Friday, a warm front is timed to lift north across the forecast area during the mid-day. During the afternoon hours, west winds should increase to 10 to 15 kts with gusts to around 20 kts.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR Friday through Tuesday.
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.MARINE...
A cold front will continue to move offshore this afternoon with winds backing from the northwest. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the offshore Georgia Waters for this afternoon, but now has been extended to 7 PM Saturday. This is due to another cold front pushing across the waters early Saturday morning. The pressure gradient looks tight enough that a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all zones Friday night into Saturday. For waters beyond 20 nm, isolated Gale gusts are possible, but probabilities of reaching gale gusts only peak at 15% to 30%. Given that, have opted for Small Craft Advisories instead. Future forecast packages will continue to monitor and refine.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for
AMZ330-352-354. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 6 AM EST Sunday for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for AMZ374.
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Haines/NED