AFD_CHS

FXUS62 KCHS 100957 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 557 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

The MCS has finally dissipated. A few showers could linger over northern zones through daybreak. Updated grids/text product were issued to reflect current trends.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1) There is a risk or showers and thunderstorms today. Above

normal temperatures persist.

- 2) Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Wednesday.

- 3) Showers and thunderstorms likely Thursday as a cold front

moves through.

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: There is a risk or showers and thunderstorms today. Above normal temperatures persist.

Warm and moist conditions remain in place today with the region located along the western flanks of subtropical high pressure. A moist southerly flow will keep a risk for isolated to perhaps scattered showers/tstms going through the rest of the day. The best chances look to remain centered north of I-16 and especially from Colleton-Beaufort Counties north where guidance places the axis of highest 850 hPa theat-e values later this morning into the afternoon. Pops 20-30% were highlighted along with a continued mention of tstms. The risk for showers/tstms will quickly end this evening with the loss of insolation and the onset of boundary layer stabilization, particularly in the wake of the inland moving resultant sea breeze circulation.

The trend of well above normal temperatures continues. High today are poised to reach into the mid-upper 80s away from the coast. The record highs at both KCHS and KSAV look safe. A well-defined resultant sea breeze circulation will begin to develop along the beaches by early afternoon and translate inland as the mid- late afternoon progresses. This will keep beach locations quite a bit cooler with highs only expected to top out in the upper 60s/lower 70s. Typical for late winter, there will be very tight thermal gradient within ~5 miles of the coast. Warm conditions will persist overnight with lows only dropping into the lower 60s and the record high minimums could be challenged for KCHS, KCXM and KSAV.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Wednesday.

Upper level ridging holds tight across the region Wednesday, resulting in yet another day of above normal temperatures. Currently have highs in the mid to upper 80s, with a few areas across interior Georgia taking a shot at 90 degrees, which could put a few records in jeopardy (more on this in the Climate section below). Similar to Tuesday, also have those along the coast staying in the upper 70s. Otherwise, look for lows to remain mild, as temperatures only fall into the lower 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Showers and thunderstorms likely Thursday as a cold front moves through.

Upper level flow will shift on Thursday as a trough and surface cold front move east from the Tennessee River Valley toward the Atlantic. South to southwest flow ahead of the front will support increasing moisture across the region. Combined with unseasonably warm temperatures, this should provide enough instability for numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the advancing front. Models show a line/broken line of convection pushing across the area in the late morning/afternoon period. The current time of FROPA (progged for Thursday evening) should keep instability somewhat limited, with SBCAPE values likely remaining below 1000 J/kg. Nonetheless, with decent shear in place (60-70 kt), can't rule out seeing a few isolated strong thunderstorms. Alternatively, if the front slows and delays rainfall into the evening hours, slightly greater instability could develop, increasing the potential for strong to marginally severe storms. Certainly something to keep an eye on in the coming days. Rainfall amounts of around one-half to one inch are expected. Flooding is not anticipated, especially as rainfall will be moving through relatively quick, though minor drainage issues could occur in urban or low-lying areas.

Otherwise, look for temperatures to drop noticeably in the wake of FROPA Thursday afternoon as CAA surges across the region, though the most significant cooling looks to occur Thursday night. Lows will fall into the upper 30s across interior southeast South Carolina and into the 40s elsewhere away from the beaches. A much cooler day is then expected Friday, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Temperatures then rebound into the 70s and 80s over the weekend.

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

10/12z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 12z Wednesday. Isolated showers/tstms could impact the terminal just about any time through the day. Confidence in a particular temporal window or direct impacts is too low to justify any mention of showers or tstms at this time.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions due to low stratus/fog remain possible through mid- week. Otherwise, look for a cold front to bring additional flight restrictions and breezy winds on Thursday.

.MARINE...

The early extensive sea fog bank has moved out of the area. Webcams at Folly and Isle of Palms show no more issues. The Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled.

Through Tonight: There remains a risk for sea fog this morning, particularly over the South Carolina nearshore waters. Otherwise, southwest winds will back to the south this afternoon with the formation of the resultant sea breeze circulation. Speeds should generally remain less than 10 kt, but may be closer to 10-15 kt in the Charleston Harbor and along the land-sea interface within the circulation itself. Winds will veer to the southwest overnight with speeds 10-15 kt. Looks like winds will be too strong for sea fog formation. Seas will average 2-2 ft nearshore waters and 3-4 ft over the Georgia offshore waters today and tonight.

Wednesday through Sunday: High pressure will be the dominant weather feature across the local waters through the middle of this week. This will result in S/SW winds 5 to 10 kt and seas 2 to 4 ft. A cold front will approach from the west late Wednesday, causing winds and seas to increase. At the least, Small Craft Advisories will be likely for most marine zones where we anticipate gusts to reach 25- 30 kt and seas 4-7 ft as early as Wednesday night. The cold front should cross through our waters Thursday, causing winds to veer out of the northeast in its wake. Gusts to gale force are possible across portions of our waters Thursday night and a brief Gale Watch/Warning could be needed. High pressure building into the region will lead to improving conditions into the weekend.

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

March 11: KCHS: 85/2015 KSAV: 87/2015

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 10: KSAV: 63/1909

March 11: KCHS: 63/2015 KCXM: 64/2016 KSAV: 64/1974

.EQUIPMENT...

The KCLX radar is scheduled for radome panel replacement March 14-16, 2026. The radar will be down during this time. Users are encouraged to use data from the following nearby radar sites during the maintenance outage:

KCAE - Columbia, SC KLTX - Wilmington, NC KJAX - Jacksonville, FL KVAX - Moody AFB, GA KJGX - Robbins AFB, GA

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.