FXUS62 KCHS 192256 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 656 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

The Aviation section was updated.

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.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1) Quiet weather and warming temperatures into the weekend.

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.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Quiet weather and warming temperatures through the weekend.

Dry high pressure will extend across the region through this weekend. A weak shortwave embedded in the northwest flow aloft is progged to pass through late Saturday afternoon/evening. This feature has the potential to generate a few showers, mainly to the north across the Midlands and Pee Dee. Locally, conditions look too dry to support anything meaningful. No mentionable pops were included as a result. Temperatures will steadily moderate through the period, reaching well above normal levels by Saturday and continuing into Monday. Highs could breach the 90 degree mark across mainly interior Southeast Georgia both Sunday and Monday afternoons.

A strong backdoor cold front will push south Monday night/early Tuesday morning ushering in cooler conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday. Above normal temperatures should return for Thursday. Models have trended a bit drier with the front Monday owing to very little meaningful moisture return ahead of it. Pops were lowered slightly from the previous forecast consistent with the 19/13z NBM. Breezy conditions could develop Monday night into Tuesday at the coast with modest cold air advection occurring behind the front and a distinct pinching of the pressure gradient noted across the coastal waters.

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.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00z Saturday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no high confidence concerns.

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.MARINE...

Through Tonight: Northeast winds will persist tonight with speeds averaging 5-10 kt nearshore waters and 10-15 kt over the Georgia offshore waters. Seas will remain in the 4-6 ft range over the Georgia offshore waters through 06z and a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

Friday through Tuesday: The biggest concern is centered on Monday night into Tuesday in the wake of a backdoor cold front. The combination of modest cold air advection and a pinching of the pressure gradient will support a strong northeast wind event with speeds likely reaching as high as 20-30 kt with gusts to gale force. Small Craft Advisories will be needed and possibly Gale Watches/Warnings for some marine legs.

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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for AMZ374.

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