FXUS62 KCHS 261136 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 636 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through the remainder of the holiday week. A cold front will move through the area early next week.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The mid-levels will consist of weak ridging to our west, which will yield northwest flow over our area. At the surface, High pressure will prevail in the northeastern Gulf. Early morning satellite imagery indicates a front is approaching from the north, and moving into our northern tier of counties around daybreak. It's expected to make it over the Charleston Tri- County, then stall out later this morning and into this afternoon. No rainfall is expected with this front. However, it should bring increased clouds to our area, especially over southeast SC. It'll also bring a notable temperature gradient. Highs north of the front should struggle to get out of the 60s, while highs south of the front should easily get into the mid to upper 70s. If the front is in a slightly different position than what's currently forecasted, then this would lead to much different temperatures across portions of our area. Regardless, the front will lift back north later this afternoon and dissipate this evening. Lows will remain mild, generally in the 50s.
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As a strong mid-upper level ridge axis builds to the west of the region, seasonably warm h850 temperatures in excess of 12 deg C build across the region. As winds become fairly unidirectional by the late morning hours, those warm h850 temperatures get mixed down to the surface, and should result in the warmest temperatures we'll see during this forecast cycle. Widespread highs in the upper 70s are expected for inland areas, though southeast Georgia counties have a 40-60% chance for reaching at least 80 degrees, with areas along the coast in the lower to mid 70s. The three climate sites remain within 3 degrees of their records, see climate section for details.
Surface high pressure slides across the area on Sunday, and with cloud coverage increasing temperatures moderate a touch. Afternoon highs still expected to reach into the lower to mid 70s for inland areas, but dip down into the mid to upper 60s along the coast. Upper level ridging begins to break down into Monday as a strong upper level trough moves into the central CONUS, accompanied by a strong cold front at the surface moving towards the region from the west. This will result in the last well above-normal day with highs in the mid 70s for inland areas, with upper 60s to lower 70s along the coast expected. However, southwest winds will likely be gusting into the mid to upper 20s, making it not quite as pleasant to be outside. Models continue to show a band of broken light rain showers may develop along/ahead of the front, though with PWATs near an inch and meager instability, any rainfall amounts expected to remain light at under a tenth of an inch.
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The aforementioned strong cold front pushes through during the evening hours, bringing an end to any remaining rainfall across the region. Much cooler air is brought in behind the cold front, with Tuesday morning temperatures expected in the lower to upper 30s, warmest along the coast. While not quite as breezy, gusty northwest winds into the mid to upper teens will be continuing throughout the day on Tuesday, with afternoon highs much cooler in the lower to mid 50s.
The coldest temperatures are expected Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, where overnight lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s are expected for inland areas, with mid 30s expected along the coast. The cold temperatures combined with wind speeds around 5 mph may result in wind chill values in the low to mid 20s degrees across the inland counties. LREF probs of wind chill values less than 20 peaks across inland GA with values around 20 percent. As a surface high pressure moves down into the western Gulf, persistent northwest winds will result in a slow warm-up Wednesday and Thursday.
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.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z TAFs: The TAFs start out with VFR. Early morning satellite imagery indicates a front is approaching from the north, and moving into our northern tier of counties. It's expected to make it over the Charleston Tri-County, then stall out later this morning and into this afternoon, then lift back north later this afternoon and dissipate. The front could bring lower stratus or stratocumulus with it. Most of the models have backed off flight restrictions for KCHS and KJZI, and upstream observations don't point to significant flight restrictions, so we're maintaining VFR through the afternoon. KSAV is expected to stay VFR. Wind should remain very light and variable for the entire TAF time period.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. Gusty winds are possible on Monday.
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.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: High pressure will prevail in the northeastern Gulf. A weak front will approach from the north early this morning, stall out over our northern coastal waters later this morning and into this afternoon, then lift back north later this afternoon and dissipate. Despite all of these synoptic features, no Small Craft Advisories are expected. Though, winds and seas should gradually trend higher tonight.
Saturday through Wednesday: Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Sunday. Winds will average less than 15 knots with seas 2-4 feet. Ahead of a strong cold front, Monday will see southwesterly winds increasing to near mid 20s with seas building. A brief lull is expected as the front pushes through Monday evening, with another round of breezy winds out of the northwest expected behind the front into Tuesday morning. Seas near 6 feet are expected well offshore in the South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC waters, and also the waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA roughly 40 to 60 nm out. Small Craft Advisories may be needed. Seas calm into Wednesday.
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.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
December 27: KCHS: 78/2021 KCXM: 76/2015 KSAV: 80/2015
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...APT LONG TERM...APT AVIATION...APT MARINE...APT