FXUS62 KCHS 080554 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1254 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper disturbance will move through today, then cold and dry high pressure will build into the region. A reinforcing cold front will move through Friday night.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Aloft, a shortwave is expected to track across the TN Valley and into the lee of the Appalachians with the main vort energy passing just to the north across NC. At the surface, a surface low off the Southeast coast will push eastward over the Atlantic while high pressure that stretches across an area from the lower MS Valley to New England gradually builds into the Eastern Seaboard. At daybreak, an area of precipitation closely associated with the aforementioned trough aloft is expected to be positioned just to the west of the forecast area. This precip should be in a diminishing trend as the trough tracks a bit more north of the area across north GA, the SC Upstate, and into central NC. As this area of precip gets into the forecast area model guidance would suggest it will be little more than isolated to scattered light showers that will pass to the northeast by midday. So, there could be a bit of light rainfall or drizzle with this activity in the morning, with the afternoon finally providing some drying. Cool north to north- northwest flow will prevail through the day with widespread low stratus persisting for yet another day. Temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 40s to low 50s for southeast SC and the low to mid 50s for southeast GA.
Tonight: High pressure will build in across the area and the forecast will be dry thanks to plentiful mid and upper level dry air. Model soundings do reveal a persistent shallow layer of moisture in the low levels, and low stratus will hang on across much of the area for one more night. Expect a chilly night with lows getting below freezing across much of the area, though mid 30s are expected from around Beaufort south along the GA coast and some areas along and south of I-16.
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry high pressure will settle over the area Tuesday with skies finally starting to clear out by midday. Temperatures will dip into the upper 20s inland Tuesday night under strong radiational cooling. Temperatures will rebound Wednesday through Thursday as the surface high shifts offshore.
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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A dry, reinforcing cold front will sweep through late Friday night, then cooler high pressure will build in. Sunday night could see temps dip into the mid 20s inland due to cold advection.
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.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The 06z TAF period begins with widespread low IFR ceilings across the area, including KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. We continue to think that ceilings will be the main issue through sunrise and that visibilities will only drop if patchy drizzle passes through the terminals. Ceilings should lift into the higher end of IFR by around midday and KSAV could even improve to MVFR by the afternoon. Low stratus will stick around into the late portion of the TAF period, but should start to show signs of scattering out. Still, ceilings will likely lower towards the end of the period. Also of note, there could be a few hour period in the late morning hours today where shower activity increases a bit. If showers were to move through the terminal, any lowering of visibilities would be brief.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR expected to return Tuesday morning.
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.MARINE...
Today through tonight: Northerly flow across the local waters will strengthen through the late afternoon becoming a solid 15-20 knots by sunset. Winds will strengthen further through the early morning hours with increasing potential for 25 knot gusts, especially in the Charleston County waters and the outer GA waters. Seas will average 2-4 feet for most of today, increasing up to 5 feet in the outer reaches of the Charleston County waters and the outer GA waters late in the day. Then overnight seas will tick upward about another foot, bringing a period of 6 ft seas into the Charleston County waters and the outer GA waters. Given the increasing probability of 25 knot gusts and 6 ft seas in these waters, we will issue Small Craft Advisories starting this afternoon and running through the overnight.
Small Craft Advisory winds/seas will continue until late Tuesday morning over the Charleston nearshore and GA offshore waters. Another brief bout of advisory conditions over these same marine waters possible Wednesday night.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Tuesday for AMZ350-374.
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NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...BSH/JRL MARINE...BSH/JRL