FXUS62 KCHS 042336 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 636 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation Section has been updated for the 00z TAF issuance.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dense fog is anticipated across much of the southeast South
Carolina and southeast Georgia tonight into Thursday morning.
- 2) Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through early
next week with increasing rain chances beginning this weekend.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dense fog is anticipated across much of the southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia tonight into Thursday morning.
Conditions will again be supportive tonight for the development of dense fog across much or all of southeast GA and southeast SC. Currently, there are no signs of marine fog across the nearshore waters which means it could take a bit longer for fog development to take place tonight compared to last night. Overall, model guidance is quite aggressive in suggesting widespread dense fog beginning in the early morning hours on Thursday and then mixing out and dissipating by mid morning. Special Weather Statements and possibly Dense Fog Advisories could be needed as the fog evolves.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through early next week with increasing rain chances beginning this weekend.
The forecast area will remain west of strong H5 ridge from Thursday through Wednesday. In fact, NAEFS indicates that mid- level ridge will generally remain two units of standard anomaly through the period. At the sfc, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will provide the region with steady ESE winds, supporting mild llvl thicknesses across the forecast area. Temperatures on Thursday through Saturday will peak in the upper 70s to mid 80s across SE GA and the SC Lowcountry. Sunday through Wednesday, highs will favor values in the low to mid 80s, with upper 80s possible across SE GA on Sunday and Monday.
Conditions are forecast to remain dry on Thursday and Friday. Generally, diurnal isolated to scattered showers, with occasional thunderstorms, expected from Saturday through Wednesday. Given ESE winds and unseasonably warm temperatures, convection may initiate or focus along afternoon and evening sea breezes. No severe weather expected.
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.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The 00z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. The main forecast challenge will again be dense fog and low stratus. Overall, we anticipate that fog and stratus will develop a bit later than it did last night. So the timing of IFR conditions into the TAF sites is around 09-10z. We have introduced TEMPO groups for dense fog to cover the 10-13z time period. Conditions should return to VFR by around mid morning and remain that way through the rest of the 00z TAF period.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Restrictive ceilings are possible overnight into the early morning hours each night through late week due to low stratus/fog.
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.MARINE...
Tonight: High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature across local waters, extending across the western Atlantic through Thursday morning. Winds/seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels, with sfc winds becoming more onshore around 10 kt or less and seas generally in the 2-4 ft range nearshore to 4-5 ft across offshore Georgia waters. The main issue should arrive during overnight hours, when the risk for sea fog returns as upper 50/lower 60 dewpts result across local waters while 1000 mb geostrophic winds are light from the south and southeast sfc winds remain light through the night. Dense Fog Advisories could eventually be needed over a portion of local waters overnight into early morning hours Thursday.
High pressure will remain centered over the western Atlantic through the weekend. Winds should favor a ESE direction Thursday through Saturday, with speeds 10 kts or less. Winds may shift from the south by Sunday. Both winds and seas are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory levels.
Sea fog will continue be a recurring concern this week as warm, moist air moves over the cooler shelf waters. Periods of fog may redevelop frequently and could persist through the weekend. The fog could become dense at times, reducing visibility for mariners. Additional Marine Dense Fog Advisories could be needed in the coming days. Winds are then forecast to shift out of the south/southwest by early next week, which could prolong the sea fog threat into that period.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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BSH