FXUS62 KCHS 081123 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 623 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation section has been updated to account for the 12z TAF issuance. Key Message 2 was added to address increasing rain chances later in the week.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Cold temperatures with wind chills into the low 20s
expected this morning for portions of the Charleston Tri- County region.
- 2) Rain chances return mid to late week.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Cold temperatures with wind chills into the low 20s expected this morning for portions of the Charleston Tri- County region.
Low temperatures are expected to fall into the low to mid 20s across portions of the Charleston Tri-County region this morning. Northeast winds will also be elevated as high pressure builds in, and the combination of cold temperatures and persistent winds will yield wind chills that could briefly reach 20 degrees. The main area of concern is Berkeley County and upper Charleston County, especially in the Francis Marion National Forest area where temperatures will be lowest. Elsewhere, wind chills in the mid to upper 20s will be more common. Based on the marginal values and short-lived duration, a Cold Weather Advisory is not anticipated.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain chances return mid to late week.
Broad mid level troughing will extend into the Southeast mid to late week, with a cold front expected to drop south through the area at the surface. Still some timing inconsistencies, but the front will bring potential for showers to the area Wednesday into Thursday. Rain amounts look to be fairly light, with NBM probs for 24 hr totals > 0.25" through Thursday generally only 10-20%. Later in the week and into the weekend gets more uncertain as indicated by ensemble spread through cluster analysis - large differences in the speed and strength of the next upper level wave. Regardless, rain chances will continue Friday and into the weekend.
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.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 12z Monday.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR prevails.
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.MARINE...
Through Tonight: High pressure centered near the OH Valley and central Appalachians continues to build into the region with an enhanced pressure gradient along the SC/GA coast. A solid northeast surge is underway, with 15-20 knots of flow steadily expanding down along the SC coast and eventually along the GA coast as well. Gusts to around 25 knots seem likely across the Charleston County waters, and a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect there. Further down the coast for the southern SC waters and the nearshore GA waters, the potential for gusts to 25 knots is less and a Small Craft Advisory is not expected at this time. There could be a few gusts to 25 knots with the initial surge, but winds should settle down to be 15-20 knots thereafter. Winds will peak around sunrise and should then steadily diminish into the afternoon as the gradient relaxes and the Small Craft Advisory for the Charleston County waters is set to expire by 9 am. Then by the overnight, winds will mostly be in the 10 knot range. Seas should peak this morning, 2-4 feet across the nearshore waters and 3-5 feet in the outer waters.
Monday through Friday: No marine concerns are anticipated. High pressure will persist early this week, with a cold front expected to drop through the region midweek. The synoptic pattern becomes more uncertain later in the week. Gusts could reach around 20 kt at times through the period, with the chance for exceeding Small Craft Advisory criteria of 25 kt or greater quite low (<10% per NBM probs). Seas will average 2-4 feet.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ350.
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BSH/ETM