FXUS62 KCHS 282335 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 735 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will extend into the area through Tuesday. A cold front could affect the area next Wednesday.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

High pressure will steadily build into the area tonight. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms managed to develop late this afternoon with the upper trough overhead. Interestingly, there was a "stronger" storm that developed and produced small hail (smaller than pea) via a report from a spotter. Any lingering activity will diminish by sunset with dry and quiet weather for the remainder of the overnight. Clouds will also dissipate with the loss of heating, so expect a generally clear night with lows dropping in the upper 30s/lower 40s well inland to around 50 along the beaches and Downtown Charleston.

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.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Friday through Sunday: Overall, very tranquil conditions will prevail across the forecast area through the weekend. Aloft, broad ridging will gradually build across the eastern half of the CONUS. High pressure will shift across the region on Friday and then settle in across the western Atlantic for the weekend. Skies should be clear for much of the weekend, with just a few periods of thin cirrus. The main forecast issue will be temperatures. Highs will be coolest on Friday, with temperatures topping out right around 70 which would be a few degrees below normal. Low-level thickness values then surge each day Saturday and Sunday. The result will be highs in the mid to upper 70s on Saturday followed by low 80s for Sunday. Each afternoon this weekend should also bring a nice progressive sea breeze as the temperature difference increases between land areas and the still relatively cooler shelf waters.

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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Quiet conditions will continue into early next week before the next chance of rain comes by the middle of the week. Ridging aloft, high pressure at the surface, and warm temperatures will continue through Tuesday. A cold front is then expected to approach the forecast area from the west Tuesday night and is currently progged to push offshore sometime Wednesday evening or Wednesday night. The front looks quite progressive and should bring a quick shot of showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms. Model guidance suggests there will be plenty of deep layer shear, though not terribly impressive instability. So, it is possible there could be at least a low end severe threat on Wednesday. Temperatures will cool back to near normal behind the front for Thursday.

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.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR is expected to prevail at all terminals through 00z Saturday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail.

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.MARINE...

Tonight: Winds and seas will slowly diminish over the waters this evening as high pressure builds in from the west and northwest, though there will be another brief wind surge late towards daybreak. Small Craft Advisories persist for the Charleston county waters until 10 PM this evening, and then through the night for the outer Georgia waters where 6 foot seas should linger.

Friday through Tuesday: A Small Craft Advisory will continue for the outer Georgia waters into early Friday afternoon due to lingering 6 ft seas. Otherwise, winds will turn southwesterly later in the day on Friday and will remain that way through the weekend and into early next week. Winds will mostly be in the 10-15 knot range, but could surge modestly higher at times as the sea breeze develops each afternoon. Also, the gradient between the offshore high and an inland surface trough will support stronger winds at times. A period of more uniformly stronger flow will be possible later on Tuesday as a cold front draws closer and the pressure gradient tightens. Its possible that marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions could occur in the Charleston County waters for periods of time over the weekend, and then again by Tuesday.

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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ350.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ374.

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NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...