FXUS62 KCHS 051407 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 907 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation Section was updated to reflect the 12Z TAF issuance. Dense Fog Advisory has been canceled for southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia and the Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been canceled for the Charleston Harbor and all nearshore waters.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Patchy fog could linger across some of the interior
southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia counties through mid-morning.
- 2) Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through early
next week, with increasing rain chances beginning this weekend.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Patchy fog could linger across some of the interior southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia counties through mid-morning.
Recent observations from METARs indicate that the dense fog has cleared out rather quickly this morning, therefore the Dense Fog Advisory has been canceled for southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia. Some patchy fog could linger across the interior counties through mid-morning and will keep watch with how that progresses.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through early next week, with increasing rain chances beginning this weekend.
Deep-layer high pressure will set up over the Western Atlantic today and persist into early next week. Despite sufficient moisture, persistent subsidence associated with this pattern will suppress widespread convection and support a pronounced warming trend.
Above-normal temperatures are expected to continue through early next week. Afternoon highs will climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s across southeast South Carolina each day. Across southeast Georgia, temperatures will reach the lower to middle 80s. Areas especially near the Altamaha River could see highs peaking in the upper 80s Saturday into early next week. Beach communities will peak several degrees cooler due to the influence of the cooler shelf waters. Overnight lows will remain mild as well; in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Despite these warm temperatures, no records are forecast at this time.
Rain-free conditions are expected today; however, slight chance POPs are currently forecast for the far inland counties both Friday and Saturday where subsidence is expected to be weakest. However, as the ridge begins to flatten Sunday, rain chances will increase into early next week, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. A series of weak shortwaves passing to the northwest Sunday into Monday could provide additional forcing for showers and thunderstorms as deep moisture remains in place. No severe weather expected at this time.
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.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIFR conditions will begin the 12Z TAF period at KJZI and KSAV, with MVFR at KCHS. Conditions will improve quickly after sunrise this morning as fog mixes out and VFR will likely return by mid-morning. VFR will then prevail through the remainder of today. Another round of fog is expected tonight into Friday morning bringing restrictive cigs/vsbys.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Restrictive ceilings are possible overnight into the early morning hours each night through the weekend due to low stratus/fog.
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.MARINE...
Today: High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature across local waters, extending across the western Atlantic through this morning. The main forecast challenge through the remainder of today will be the sea fog. Satellite imagery and webcam observations indicate that there is some patchy sea fog lingering just offshore. It looks like it'll continue to dissipate through mid-morning and travel further offshore.
High pressure will remain centered over the western Atlantic through the weekend, resulting in an easterly/southeasterly flow through Saturday. Winds are then expected to shift out of the southwest Sunday through early next week. Both winds and seas are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory levels.
Sea fog will continue to be a recurring concern as warm, moist air moves over the cooler shelf waters. Periods of fog may redevelop frequently and could persist through the weekend, potentially lingering into early next week. The fog could become dense at times, reducing visibility for mariners. Additional Marine Dense Fog Advisories could be needed.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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BRS/CPM/Dennis