FXUS62 KCHS 280850 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 450 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Update to expire the Small Craft Advisory for the outer GA waters.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Rain chances will increase Wednesday through the weekend,
though no significant impacts are expected at this time.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain chances will increase Wednesday through the weekend, though no significant impacts are expected at this time.
The latter half of the week marks the onset of a gradual transition toward a more unsettled pattern, although coverage could remain limited. A surface low tracking across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys could bring periods of isolated to scattered showers and/or thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. Instability looks meager, so any thunderstorms that develop are expected to be weak and non-severe, with low potential for significant impacts.
A second system could affect the region Friday into the weekend, bringing another round of showers/thunderstorms. Similarly, the risk of hazardous weather remains low at this time.
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.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The 06z TAF period begins with mostly VFR conditions across the area, though there are still remnants of the MVFR stratus from Monday. Overall, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 06z Wednesday. Over the next few hours, we could still see MVFR ceilings move back in, mainly at KJZI and KSAV. This stratus should finally dissipate for good by sunrise. Otherwise, a diminishing area of showers and thunderstorms will move towards the area from the northwest on Tuesday but all model guidance shows it dissipating and not impact the terminals.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Possible flight restrictions within isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms that could impact the terminals during the latter half of this week.
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.MARINE...
Through tonight: Northeast flow will continue this morning before the gradient falls apart and results in very weak flow into the afternoon. The sea breeze will produce some modest onshore flow, but speeds should mostly top out around 10 knots (perhaps 10-15 right along the land/sea interface). Overnight, southerly flow will increase and could reach 10-15 knots by sunrise Wednesday. Seas will steadily diminish through the period, highest this morning with 2-4 ft on average and up to 5 ft in the outer waters, becoming 2-3 ft late tonight.
Conditions are expected to decline Wednesday as a cold front approaches, with winds and seas nearing Small Craft Advisory levels. Southeast winds will gust 20-25 knots, with seas building to 3-5 ft. The latest forecast remains below SCA criteria; therefore, no headlines are anticipated. A more robust system later this week or this weekend could bring another period of elevated winds and seas, potentially leading to Small Craft Advisory or low-end gale conditions.
Rip Currents: Higher-period swell and gusty S/SW winds will result in a moderate risk of rip currents for all southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia beaches Wednesday.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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BRS/BSH