FXUS62 KCHS 100546 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1246 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The aviation section has been updated for the 06z TAF issuance. Minor changes made to the discussion for Key Message 1.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Rain chances return Wednesday and again late week into the
weekend.
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.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain chances return Wednesday and again late week into the weekend.
Expect upper level shortwave over the Tennessee River Valley to quickly progress eastward toward the Atlantic this evening, dragging an attendant sfc cold front across the region by Wednesday. As noted in days past, this boundary may cause a few isolated to scattered showers to develop Wednesday afternoon and evening. That being said, overall forcing and moisture are quite meager, suggesting that rainfall totals will remain on the lighter side. Latest ensemble guidance only supports around a 30-40% chance of seeing greater than a tenth of rain. Rather, the more likely scenario will entail most of the area only seeing a few hundredths at best.
Our attention then turns toward the weekend, as a more pronounced and impactful system takes aim at our area. Deep upper level trough across the Four Corner region ejects eastward across the central Plains Saturday night into Sunday, before sliding across the southeast CONUS by Monday. While prefrontal showers could begin as early as Saturday, expect the better chances (80%+) to arrive Sunday afternoon as WAA blossoms across the region ahead of the aforementioned low. Despite there still being variability in the overall strength and track of the low, latest ensemble guidance showcases a 70-80% chance of seeing greater than 0.5 inch of rain, with chances dropping to 40-60% for greater than an inch. Certainly something to keep an eye on in the coming days, especially with convection possible, which could result in isolated pockets of higher accumulations.
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.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 06z Wednesday.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR prevails through early Friday. Flight restrictions are possible with a passing low pressure system this weekend.
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.MARINE...
Through tonight: The local waters will increasingly become situated between high pressure over the southwest Atlantic and a cold front that stretches from the Great Lakes region to the Southern Plains. This setup will produce southwest flow that will gradually strengthen through the day, with 10-15 knots of flow everywhere and up to 15-20 knots in the Charleston County waters. Overnight, the gradient will tighten and winds will strengthen. Speeds will be 15- 20 knots everywhere, with potential for 25 knot gusts in the Charleston County waters and the outer GA waters. There continues to be a low probability (20-30%) of seeing a period of 25 knot gusts in the outer reaches of the Charleston County waters and the outer GA waters. At this time, Small Craft Advisories do not look likely.
Wednesday through Saturday: Southwest winds will remain elevated into the 15-20 knot range on Wednesday ahead of the approaching front. There is still a low probability (20-30%) of seeing 25 knot gusts in the outer reaches of the Charleston County waters and the outer GA waters through Wednesday morning. Winds will turn west and then northwest as the front pushes through the waters Wednesday evening and into early Thursday morning. A brief northeast surge will occur Thursday morning and then conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds Friday through Saturday.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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BSH/SST