FXUS62 KCHS 252315 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 615 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through the remainder of the holiday week. A cold front will move through the area early next week.
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Early this evening: Very quiet conditions across the forecast area under clear skies with high pressure situated to the south and a cold front to the north. Skies should remain mostly clear for most of the night. The aforementioned front will approach from the north late and could just get into Berkeley and Charleston counties around or just after sunrise. This could bring some stratus or stratocumulus with it, but will have little to no impact on the forecast. Lows are forecast to fall into the low to mid 50s in most areas.
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On Friday, a backdoor cold front should remain just north of the area during the morning. The front may begin to lift northward as a clipper dives across the Ohio River Valley during the daylight hours. Conditions should remain dry with high temperatures ranging from near 70 across the I-26 corridor to the upper 70s across SE GA.
On Saturday, the center of a 585dm ridge will shift over the eastern Gulf, with the ridge axis remain just west of the forecast area. Given mostly sunny conditions and very mild llvl thicknesses, Saturday is forecast to see some of the warmest temps of the week, featuring lows in the mid 50s and highs in the mid to upper 70s. In fact, temperatures may range within 3 degrees of record high temperatures for Saturday, see Climate section.
By Sunday, the forecast area should remain between high pressure centered over the western Atlantic and low pressure over the Great Lakes region. This pattern should provide the forecast area with light south winds and increasing cloud cover. Temperatures will remain well above normal, with lows in the low to mid 50s and highs well into the 70s.
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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z guidance shows a strong cold front remain west of the CWA prior to sunset on Monday. Monday is forecast to remain very mild with highs favoring the mid 70s. Physics-based and AI models indicate that a band of light rain showers may develop along and ahead of the front on Monday. The forecast will feature 20-30 PoPs for showers.
Conditions should turn sharply cooler for Tuesday and Wednesday. The coldest conditions forecast for Tuesday night / Wednesday morning, with low temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. The cold temperatures combined with wind speeds around 5 mph may result in wind chill values in the low to mid 20s degrees across the inland counties. LREF probs of wind chill values less than 20 peaks across inland GA with values around 20 percent.
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.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The 00z TAF period begins with VFR conditions under clear skies. The main forecast challenge revolves around a backdoor front that will sag into the the KCHS and KJZI vicinity around or just after sunrise Friday. As the front drops in it could bring an area of stratus or stratocumulus with it, potentially producing a period of restricted ceilings. However, the southern extent of the stratus remains unclear with plenty of mixed signals in model guidance. For now we have kept the forecast VFR, but there is potential for MVFR. If MVFR conditions develop, these ceilings could hang around into the afternoon hours at KCHS and KJZI. The threat of ceilings at KSAV is very low at this time.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. Gusty winds are possible on Monday.
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.MARINE...
Tonight: Sfc cold front dives southward along the Atlantic coast late this evening. Marine concerns are not anticipated at this time, with seas between 2-3 ft and gusts up to 15 kts.
Friday through Tuesday: Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Sunday. Winds will average less than 15 knots with seas 2-4 feet. The main time period of concern is Monday into Tuesday as a strong cold front approaches and sweeps across the Atlantic waters. Winds could develop gusts around 25 kts with seas up to six feet, especially across the outer GA and nearshore Charleston County waters.
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.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
December 27: KCHS: 78/2021 KCXM: 76/2015 KSAV: 80/2015
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM...NED LONG TERM...NED AVIATION...BSH/NED MARINE...NED/SST