Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern U.S.: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the Florida Peninsula eastward to the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean are associated with a weak surface trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend while the system drifts northward or northeastward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of west-central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on Saturday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Friday, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$ Forecaster Blake