Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

East of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98): A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Earlier satellite wind data indicated the system lacks a closed circulation, but is producing winds of 30 to 35 mph to the north of the wave axis. Environmental conditions appear marginally conductive for slow development over the next couple of days as the system moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph, crossing the Windward Islands and entering the Caribbean Sea by early next week. By the middle of next week, the system is expected to slow down over the central Caribbean Sea, where environmental conditions could become more favorable for further development. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands Sunday and Sunday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

North Atlantic: A non-tropical area of low pressure is located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda. There is a slight chance that the system could develop some subtropical characteristics over the next day or so before it turns northeastward into cooler ocean waters on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$ Forecaster Papin